Predicting the 76th Primetime Emmy Award Winners: Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

September 11, 2024 | Neil Turitz
Photo Credit: MISHELLA / Shutterstock.com

If it’s time for another big awards show, then sure enough, Neil Turitz returns to Casting Networks to make some predictions.

Two years ago, we were nearly perfect, nailing nine of 12 winners, with the three misses all being actors who I thought should have won, so I decided to give myself a little extra credit for being so on top of it.

Last year — technically this year, since strikes delayed the ceremony to January — was not quite as successful. I only got eight of 12 because I did not see the Beef wave coming, and my Should Win secondary tally was … well, what’s past is past and why don’t we all agree to look forward? That is, after all, where the action is.

So without any further ado, let’s get our hands dirty. We start with Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie, with Supporting Actress to follow.

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Nominees

  • Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
  • Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer
  • Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer
  • John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country
  • Lamorne Morris, Fargo
  • Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
  • Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

Category Analysis

I’ve liked Treat Williams since I discovered him in Prince of the City, back in the 1980s. His death last year in a motorcycle accident was a tragedy, and it would have been lovely for him to accept the deserved kudos for his work in Ryan Murphy’s latest limited series, or even to get some posthumous love, but this is not the year when that love will turn into a victory.

The same goes for John Hawkes, another actor I love who is also brilliant in everything he does.

It’s not that this category is stacked, (I don’t necessarily think it is, at least, not as much as some others, and we’ll get to those in due time) but I think the top couple of contenders are so much likelier to win that the bottom few are just honored to be nominated. Lamorne Morris falls into that category, as does Lewis Pullman. Morris joked that this nomination was for his work in New Girl, and Pullman shined in his first time as a romantic lead, but this is going in another direction.

Emmy-Winning Predictions

I think there are three real contenders for this award. One is Tom Goodman-Hill for his remarkable turn in episode four of Baby Reindeer. He is truly tremendous here, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to carry him to the top. I think this surprise hit will get its due (see below), and there is a slim chance he could pull an upset, but I don’t see it.

Why? Because the two other actors against whom he is competing are Robert Downey Jr. and Jonathan Bailey.

In just about any normal year, I would say this is Downey’s to lose. He plays multiple roles in The Sympathizer, his first time in a TV series since he was on Saturday Night Live nearly 40 years ago. There’s also the fact that he finally won an Oscar a few months back for Oppenheimer, and these academies like recognizing winners in the same year other academies have.

Normally, I would give the edge to RDJ, but the thing is, Bailey is genuinely transcendent in Fellow Travelers. He’s also a gay man playing a gay man in an important series that traces the difficulties of being LGBTQ+ from the 1950s through the 1980s. As good as RDJ is, I think that’s what carries Bailey to the gold.

Who Should Win: Jonathan Bailey
Who Will Win: Jonathan Bailey

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

You may have noticed up above that I said Baby Reindeer would get its due, and then dropped in a parenthetical (see below). If you’ve seen Baby Reindeer, you know what I’m talking about, but let’s not rush too far ahead. There are other actors to discuss and nominees to name. Let’s do the latter first.

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Nominees

  • Dakota Fanning, Ripley
  • Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge
  • Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
  • Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry
  • Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
  • Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
  • Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country

Category Analysis

I have to say, it’s fun to talk about a category when one is such a fan of every single person in said category. Diane Lane, Aja Naomi King and Dakota Fanning are all wonderful actresses who were terrific in their respective shows. It’s been especially interesting to see how child star Fanning has grown into a phenomenal adult actress, much like Lane did, and in other years might have a better chance, but sadly, their timing stinks.

Lily Gladstone, meanwhile, is having herself a year, between this, her Oscar nomination and the terrific movie Fancy Dance, currently streaming on Apple TV+ (seriously, after you finish this piece, go watch it and thank me later). She’s also part of an Emmy first: the first time that two indigenous actresses were nominated in the same category (I mean, she’s not going to win this award, but still, what a year).

The other indigenous actress here is Kali Hawk, and if anyone is going to pull an upset, it’s her. Not only does she give a bracing performance in the latest season of True Detective, but she does it opposite Jodie Foster, who of course is also nominated in the Best Actress category of this division.

Emmy-Winning Predictions

It’s generally a pretty good rule of thumb that if an actor is working opposite one of the greatest talents alive (your Denzel Washingtons, for instance, or your Meryl Streeps, or, in this case, your Jodie Fosters) and they don’t get completely blown off the screen, then they’re doing something right. If they hold their own and meet that genius at their level, then that needs to be recognized.

Hawk’s work here is worthy of that, it’s just once again poor timing that she happened to do it this year, because this category is a sure thing.

Remember that “Baby Reindeer getting its due” bit I mentioned above? Here’s where I get to the nitty-gritty of it, and it’s not about Nava Mau, who of course is excellent in the show.

This is completely and entirely about Jessica Gunning, who is so astoundingly off-the-charts brilliant in the Netflix series that this is a foregone conclusion.

It’s rare that such an amazing talent seems to appear out of nowhere, plants their flag and then sustains it to the point where it is a waste of time to even talk about anyone else. This is all Gunning’s, and that acceptance speech will be a pleasure to watch.

Who Should Win: Jessica Gunning
Who Will Win: Jessica Gunning

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