It’s been a heck of a ride, hasn’t it? This last week of awards season is always something of a humdinger. Voting is complete, and now all that’s left is waiting for those envelopes to be opened.
After talking in detail all week about the four acting categories, it’s time for a quick run around the remaining ones. As with our conversation last week about the SAG awards, this will be somewhat fast and furious.
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Best Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Film and Live Action Short Film
Let’s start with the three short subjects: Animated, Documentary and Live Action. These are always the hardest. That said, I have nailed all three in my annual Oscar pool for each of the last three years, so take that however you will.
The Animated nominees are Wander to Wonder, Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of the Cypress, Magic Candles and Yuck! I would love to see something called Yuck! win an Oscar, but I think that Wander to Wonder or In the Shadow of the Cypress are likelier. If I had to pick one, it’d be the former.
Documentary Short nominees are Death by Numbers, I Am Ready, Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart and The Only Girl In the Orchestra. Lots of hard-hitting entries here, including a film about a Parkland survivor, but I Am Ready, Warden is about both the aftermath of a horrific crime and a study of capital punishment, and that feels like the kind of film that wins this award.
Live Action Short nominees are A Lien, Anuja, I’m Not a Robot, The Last Ranger and The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. There are more hard-hitting and timely entries here, but The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, which is about the 1990s genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina, probably has the edge.
Best Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and International Feature Film
Now, to the features. The nominees for Best Animated Feature are Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl and The Wild Robot. I liked Inside Out 2 just fine, but didn’t enjoy it nearly as much as the first one. I get the sense that this sentiment is common, which means the two frontrunners are The Wild Robot and Flow, both of which are wonderful movies. I think that having more nominations gives The Wild Robot the edge. A slight edge, perhaps, but an edge nonetheless.
The nominees for Best Documentary Feature are Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup D’etat and Sugarcane. Although it’s a crime that Super/Man is not here, Porcelain War won the Grand Prize at Sundance last year and both guild awards; and since it’s about the Russia-Ukraine War, and the last two winners in this category were also about that ongoing tragedy, this feels like a pretty safe bet.
The nominees for Best International Feature are Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl With the Needle, I’m Still Here and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. I am personally a big fan of all these movies, especially The Seed of the Sacred Fig, but even with the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón, I think this award is that movie’s to lose.
Music, Visual Effects and Sound
The nominees for Best Original Song are “El Mal” and “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing and “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late. As much as I like to think Elton John might win another one of these trophies, I think the double-barreled action of Emilia Pérez nominees will prove too much. My guess is “El Mal” takes it, but don’t wager too much money on it.
Four of the Best Original Score nominees come from Best Picture contenders. They are The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked, with The Wild Robot thrown in for good measure. I loved Volker Berelmann’s Conclave score, and I would love to see it win, but I think Daniel Blumberg will take it for The Brutalist. I also think that a lot of Wicked nominees are there as a preview for next year, when the movie’s Part 2 is a more serious contender.
Next up, one of my favorite categories is Best Visual Effects. The nominees are Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Wicked. As good as Dune: Part Two is — and it was a top-five film for me this year — I think that director Denis Villeneuve still having not been nominated tells you how seriously the Academy takes it. That said, this is an easy win for the film, as is the next category …
Best Sound. Those nominees are A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked and The Wild Robot. Two Timothée Chalamet films here, and previously stated, I’m expecting an easy win for Dune: Part Two. The first film won this award a couple of years ago, and this movie was bigger and louder.
Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design
Moving on, nominees for Best Makeup and Hairstyling are A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance and Wicked. This is, to me, one of the easiest picks of any category: it’s The Substance, all the way. I mean, have you seen that movie? Jeez.
Next, Best Costume Design! The nominees are A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, and Wicked. This one (and the next) feels like one of the two times where Wicked will triumph, though if there’s going to be an upset, I’d go with A Complete Unknown.
Best Film Editing, Production Design and Cinematography
The nominees for Best Film Editing are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked, all of which are Best Picture contenders. A quick note about this category: there was a time, not so long ago, that great action films were nominated here (past winners include The Bourne Ultimatum, Black Hawk Down and The Matrix, and past nominees include Speed, Crimson Tide, Air Force One and The Dark Knight), but lately it’s become just a boring collection of Best Picture nominees. Anyway, it’s between Conclave and The Brutalist. I prefer the former, so that’s my pick.
On to Best Production Design, where the nominees are The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu and Wicked. See the previous paragraph. I think Wicked’s got it, though if there’s an upset, it’ll be The Brutalist.
And the final below-the-line category is Best Cinematography, where the nominees are The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria and Nosferatu. Another easy call: Lol Crawley for The Brutalist.
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
We’re coming to the homestretch now, with just the writing awards and the big two, Director and Picture, to go. First up, Best Original Screenplay, for which, the nominees are A Real Pain, Anora, The Brutalist, September 5 and The Substance. This is a strong year for this category, and any of the five would be deserving winners, though the one likeliest to upset Anora — which I believe will win — is The Substance. That movie fell apart for me in the final, interminable half-hour, and although this is the weakest of the bunch, people responded to it.
The nominees for the companion category, Best Adapted Screenplay, are A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing, and this one isn’t even a contest. Peter Straugham has won every other major award for his work adapting Conclave, and this one is no different.
Best Director
And now, the big two! The nominees for Best Director are Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, Sean Baker for Anora, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. I honestly think Corbet was the favorite here until Baker won the DGA award last week. To me, that vaults him into the pole position. The two don’t always match up, but they do more often than SAG does with the acting categories, so while Corbet’s huge swing deserves plenty of praise and is certainly award-worthy, I will take a chance and say I think Baker wins this with his late charge.
Best Picture
This takes us to Best Picture, and what I think is now a two-film race. First, the full list of nominees, which is A Complete Unknown, Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked. Up until last week, I would’ve thought The Brutalist was the slight frontrunner to win the big prize, but Anora’s sweep of the Directors and Producers Guild awards has vaulted that film into the lead. Would I be surprised if The Brutalist pulls it out? I would not, but I’m going with Anora.
With any luck, that film’s star, Mikey Madison, will also go home with gold, beating out Demi Moore in a role that, I’m sorry, just doesn’t deserve to win an Oscar. I know I talked about this the other day, but it does bear repeating. Demi was good. Really good. But is she this good? Nope. Sorry. This fella is Team Mikey, all the way.
And that’ll do it! See you in the fall for the Emmys!
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