After reviewing the Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, we finally come to the last of our four commentaries: the Best Actor. Although we might have hoped to provide more clarity, this category is perhaps only slightly more defined than the others.
I think it’s fair to say that any one of three different men could take this award, which is not as wide open as the Best Actress race, but it’s close. Certainly, I don’t believe there is one particular frontrunner.
The nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role are Adrien Brody in The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo in Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes in Conclave, and Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice.
Key Insights: Our Best Actor 2025 Predictions
- Secure industry nods like SAG nominations, as they can boost Oscar chances.
- Build a compelling narrative, with career milestones enhancing award prospects.
- Engage voters with accessible and manageable film lengths to maintain their interest.
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Sebastian Stan is a wonderful actor whose performance as a young Donald Trump is close to scary. That being said, he won’t win the Oscar.
Aside from the fact that he was not nominated for a SAG Award — and as we all know, nobody wins an acting Oscar without having first earned at least a SAG nomination — there is no chance that this Academy is going to reward a portrayal of the current president. Stan will be here again, but this feels a lot like this nomination is his award.
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Colman Domingo has done something not a lot of people have accomplished: he has now been nominated for Best Actor two years in a row. Last year, it was for the biopic of civil rights activist Bayard Rustin, and this year, it’s for his work as a wrongly convicted man in Sing Sing.
Domingo has been around a long time, but it feels like he’s finally come into his own in his mid-50s. I think he has as much chance of winning this award as Stan does, and like Stan, there’s no way this will be the last time he shows up on this list. The issue is that the other three actors on this list all have a much, much greater chance of actually winning.
I think this is a three-way race, with each actor having one good reason why they will win, and one good reason why they won’t. Let’s start with Ralph Fiennes.
Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
Fiennes is one of the most respected actors alive, with decades of great work behind him and still plenty of fantastic work ahead. His acting in Conclave as a cardinal overseeing the election of a new pope is spectacular, and was one of my favorite performances of the year. It’s deep, it’s subtle and the mastery he has over his craft is mesmerizing. He could very well win the Oscar because people really like him and this performance would be a great way to reward a career, while also rewarding work that is arguably as good as anything or anyone else this year.
That said, the subtlety and depth on display are also why he won’t win. It’s just not as big and flashy as the other two esteemed gentlemen on this list. The Academy is not famous for recognizing subtlety, otherwise, Heath Ledger would’ve won an Oscar for Brokeback Mountain and Steven Yuen would’ve won for Minari. Hence, another year of being the “also ran” for Mr. Fiennes.
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is immersive and astonishing in its detail. He looks and sounds like Bob Dylan without trying to impersonate him.
I thought Chalamet, who is still just 29, was electrifying as Dylan, singing all the old master’s songs without missing a beat (figuratively and literally). If Chalamet wins, he’ll replace fellow nominee Adrien Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner ever. Brody was a month shy of his 30th birthday when he took the prize for The Pianist in 2003, and Chalamet just turned 29 in December.
If you were paying attention, I just gave you the reason why he will win and why he won’t: he’s electrifying and he’s young. I think the Academy could give him the award because of how well he trod the high wire that was playing Bob Dylan, while also being wary of giving him this award too early. This is already his second nomination, and he has become a genuine movie star, which means he’s going to be here again when he’s not making giant space movies.
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
This leads us to Brody, who does titanic work in The Brutalist, sporting an accent and doing all the things that earn an actor a nomination like this.
Brody’s work is stellar, and he absolutely deserves to be here. I think he has a slight edge over Fiennes and Chalamet, but I wonder how many voters have worked their way to the end of that movie; it runs three and a half hours and is not always an easy watch. Chalamet is playing a real person, and Brody’s movie is just so long (maybe the vote should go to young Timothée).
There you have it. One reason why Fiennes, Chalamet and Brody will win the Oscar, and one reason why they won’t. If I had a vote, I would be truly torn, but I think I would give it to Fiennes because I happen to like subtlety. I would’ve voted for Ledger and I would’ve voted for Yuen, so Fiennes is my call. That said, it would be hard to get upset if anyone else wins, which, I suspect, someone else will.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Ralph Fiennes
WHO WILL WIN: Adrien Brody
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