Honest to God, I have never seen a Best Actress race this wide open. I am 54 years old, I have been watching and keeping track of the Oscars for more than four decades, and not once have I seen a race where literally four of the five nominees could win, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if any of them did. The only surprise would be the woman who was the shoo-in winner just a couple of months ago, but whose past has come back to haunt her to the point where she has become a non-entity — which would be another first for me.
The nominees for Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role are Cynthia Erivo in Wicked, Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Perez, Mikey Madison in Anora, Demi Moore in The Substance, and Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here.
Key Insights: Our Best Actress 2025 Predictions
- Controversies can greatly affect your chances of winning awards, regardless of performance quality.
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Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Perez
I noted this two days ago, but it bears repeating since we’re covering the relevant category. Just a couple of months back, I would have bet a large amount of money on Karla Sofía Gascón becoming not just the first trans actor to be nominated for an Oscar, but also to win one. I’m not going to get into the weeds about whether or not she’s a racist or a bigot or just went through a bad time or whatever. That’s not important now. What’s important is how poorly this all was handled. I’m not excusing the behavior in the slightest; I’m just pointing out that this could all have been avoided if everyone involved had been smarter about it. It’s moot now, of course, but people have been known to make mistakes and come back from them — especially in this business.
TL;DR: She is now the only Best Actress nominee who has no chance to win. That leaves four who very much do. Let’s get into it with each of them and talk about why one of them will emerge from the pack.
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Cynthia Erivo has been here before, and she will assuredly be here again next year for the second part of the Wicked movie. That’s kind of why I think she won’t win this time, much like why I don’t think Ariana Grande will win for Supporting Actress. True, she knocks “Defying Gravity” out of the park in what is undeniably a spectacular climax to the first film, but that “X” factor of knowing the Academy could potentially reward her work later keeps me from buying in too heavily this time. It could happen, but I doubt it.
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Fernanda Torres gives a remarkable performance in the Brazilian Best Picture nominee I’m Still Here, and I think there’s a real outside chance that she could sneak in and take this, especially if the next two nominees split the vote, which is a sincere possibility. Torres is subtle and soulful in the film, but that’s part of why I think she won’t win (for more on this, tune in tomorrow for the Best Actor category). In other years she might be the frontrunner, but honestly, while it’s possible she could sneak in with a win, it will probably only happen if the other two women in this category split the vote.
Demi Moore in The Substance
That has me genuinely flummoxed. Why am I flummoxed? Well, I’m glad you asked. The thing is, I cannot figure out this Demi Moore thing. Yes, she is very good in The Substance. Yes, it’s probably the best performance of her career, and yes, she’s got a fantastic story with this being such a comeback and everything, but … I kind of don’t get it. The movie is mostly great — it runs off the rails for me in the final half-hour — but Moore’s only in about 40 percent of it.
Author’s note: I looked this up. Moore is on screen for 59 minutes and 17 seconds of the film’s 141-minute running time, while Margaret Qualley, playing the character’s younger version, is on for 57 minutes and 36 seconds.
I know, I know, screen time is not always an accurate way to describe who is the film’s lead (in just one example, Best Actress winner Frances McDormand had less screen time than Best Supporting Actor nominee William H. Macy in Fargo). Somehow this plays into it for me, especially when judged against the fifth nominee, and my personal choice for the year’s best performance, Mikey Madison.
Mikey Madison, Anora
Madison is in just about every frame of Anora, and she is a wonder to behold. She is totally naked in the film, both physically and emotionally, and brings enormous power to a role that could have been a cliché or a caricature. I know the same could be said of what Moore does in The Substance, and although I think Anora is a far superior movie, Madison carrying her film from start to finish counts a lot more in my book. Moore is great, no question, but there is no reality in which I believe what she does in The Substance compares to what Madison does in Anora.
A lot of pundits are talking about how Demi Moore is going to win this award. She gave a great speech at the Golden Globes, she has all these critics’ kudos and her comeback story is amazing. That being said, I still don’t get it. The Academy has made plenty of mistakes over the years, but I do believe they’ll make the right call here. Maybe it’s folly, maybe it’s pie-in-the-sky nonsense, but I have faith that sanity will prevail.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Mikey Madison
WHO WILL WIN: Mikey Madison
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