Last week, I showed up here to have a quick chat about the SAG Awards, with the promise that I would return this week with longer looks at the four acting categories we will see this weekend at the Academy Awards. Well, that time has arrived, and so now let’s take a deeper dive into those categories, with something close to a scientific examination of who should win and why, as well as who will. If you have read any of these pieces over the years, you are well aware that the two names are often not the same.
Article Insights:
- Zoe Saldaña is the frontrunner despite controversy surrounding her film’s lead actor, Karla Sofía Gascón.
- Monica Barbaro could be a potential upset with her transformative portrayal of Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown.
- Ariana Grande impresses in Wicked but may have a stronger shot next year with the sequel’s release.
The nominees are MONICA BARBARO in A Complete Unknown, ARIANA GRANDE in Wicked, FELICITY JONES in The Brutalist, ISABELLA ROSSELINI in Conclave, and ZOE SALDAÑA in Emilia Pérez.
As I noted last week, I think this is the one category in which there is a clear frontrunner, with that person being Ms. Saldaña. Six weeks ago, I think there was probably no way she was going to lose, but then something happened that might possibly affect her chances, and it was something that had literally nothing to do with her.
The movie’s titular star, Karla Sofía Gascón, got into some hot water when past racist and Islamophobic tweets were discovered. As if that wasn’t bad enough, she made matters worse with an ill-considered public relations retort that did not go as planned. The movie was bestowed with 13 nominations, which some thought meant it was the Best Picture frontrunner, That was never true — this movie was never going to win Best Picture — but I think it was pretty safe to say that both Gascón and Saldaña were clear frontrunners to win their respective categories. With Gascón, not only do I no longer think that’s true, I think she has no shot at all to win.
But with Saldaña, my instinct is still that she’s going to take it, though before we hand her the trophy, let’s take a look at the other four nominees and discuss why one or two of them might possibly pull an upset.
Let’s start with Felicity Jones. The interesting thing about her performance is that, while it’s great, she doesn’t show up until after The Brutalist’s intermission, and there has been some scuttlebutt that, perhaps, not everyone in the Academy is finishing the film.
Now, I happen to think that’s a little silly, but I also will point to the fact that neither she nor Isabella Rossellini earned SAG nominations. Thing is, I actually really loved Rossellini’s performance in Conclave, which is especially impressive when one considers how little she actually speaks in the movie.
Both are tremendous. No doubt about it. But if anyone is going to upset Saldaña, it’s going to be one of the two musical performances, Ariana Grande’s in Wicked, and Monica Barbaro’s in A Complete Unknown. I honestly don’t recall a time in semi-recent memory when three different nominees all sang for their supper. Grande is incredible, obviously, and lives up to the standard set by Kristin Chenoweth in the original stage show.
For my money, though, what Barbaro does as Joan Baez in James Mangold’s Bob Dylan film is pretty close to transcendent. I have a thing about actors playing real people. Too often, instead of a performance that interprets the real person, it’s an impersonation. It’s a subtle difference, but the best way I can differentiate it is thusly: in Bohemian Rhapsody, Rami Malek gives us a particular version of Freddie Mercury. In Man on the Moon, Jim Carrey becomes Andy Kaufman. It’s a wonder to watch, but disappearing into the role feels different. You want to see the actor playing the part, rather than thinking you’re seeing the acting equivalent of a tribute band.
Barbaro doesn’t impersonate Baez, she plays a version of her, while also singing all the songs herself and matching beat for beat Timothee Chalamet’s master class as Dylan himself (and more about that later this week).
As good as Grande is, I think she’s got a better shot at winning next year, when Wicked’s highly anticipated second half premieres, which brings it down to Barbaro and Saldaña, who is remarkable as the lawyer and confidant of the movie’s title character. I’ve long been a fan of Saldaña, who has always done solid work.
This, though, is next-level stuff, and she has absolutely earned her spot here. I also don’t believe that any backlash against the movie will affect her, but if it does, I am pretty sure Barbaro will be there to sneak in. It’s still Saldaña’s to lose, though. That’s where my money is, torn as I am about who deserves it most.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Zoe Saldaña
WHO WILL WIN: Zoe Saldaña
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