Well, if it’s time for a major awards show that doesn’t have “Golden” or “Globes” in the title, then it must be time for me to swing back around with analysis and predictions. This week, a quick, rapid-fire look at the SAG Awards, whereas next week, we’ll take a deeper dive into the Academy Awards’ four acting categories.
Since there’s a lot of ground to cover for the SAG Awards nominations, and not a lot of space in which to do it, let’s not dally too much and dive right in.
The film categories are all standard. Best Actor and Actress, as well as Supporting Actor and Actress. Just like the Oscars. Simple, straightforward, easy to discuss. Also just like the Oscars, for the first time in a long while, I think three of these four categories are wide open.
Usually, by this time in awards season, at least three if not all four acting categories have shaken out and there is a clear frontrunner. This year, I think there is one clear frontrunner in one category, but not in the other three, so let’s start with that one, and then go from there.
Article Insights:
- Supporting Actress Race: With Jamie Lee Curtis and Danielle Deadwyler out of the Oscar race, Monica Barbaro, Ariana Grande, and Zoe Saldaña are the real contenders. Given the buzz around Saldaña’s performance, she appears to be the frontrunner despite controversy surrounding the film.
- Supporting Actor Prediction: Kieran Culkin is favored due to his past wins, but Edward Norton and Jeremy Strong have also gained momentum. Strong could pull an upset, but Culkin remains the favorite to win.
- Best Actress Drama: Karla Sofía Gascón lost steam due to a scandal, making Demi Moore the likely winner thanks to her compelling comeback narrative and win at the Golden Globes.
- Best Actor Race: Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet and Ralph Fiennes are the real contenders, but Fiennes’ longstanding, respected career may give him the edge.
- TV Performances: Shōgun is expected to dominate drama categories, with Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai likely to win. Baby Reindeer could sweep limited series awards, with Richard Gadd and Jessica Gunning emerging victorious.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
The Supporting Actress nominees are MONICA BARBARO in A Complete Unknown, JAMIE LEE CURTIS in The Last Showgirl, DANIELLE DEADWYLER in The Piano Lesson, ARIANA GRANDE in Wicked, and ZOE SALDAÑA in Emilia Pérez.
Curtis and Deadwyler were not nominated for Oscars, and while the SAG Award often but not always predicts the Oscars, no one wins a Sag Award without an Oscar nod. Which means we’re talking about Barbaro, Grande, and Saldaña. Interestingly, all three actresses sang in their performances, which is already impressive enough. Personally, I thought Barbaro was majestic as Joan Baez, and while Grande probably surprised everyone with her work in Wicked, I think this is Saldaña’s to lose. Even with the current scandal involving her movie (and more about that below), I think she’s the one who takes it.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Now we get into more wide open spaces. The Supporting Actor nominees are JONATHAN BAILEY in Wicked, YURA BORISOV in Anora, KIERAN CULKIN in A Real Pain, EDWARD NORTON in A Complete Unknown, and JEREMY STRONG in The Apprentice.
Let’s get Bailey out of the way first: no Oscar nod, so forget it. I think Culkin has long been the frontrunner here, though Norton and Strong have come on steadily over the last couple months. Other actors love Culkin, not just because of his work on Succession (for which both he and Strong won a couple of these trophies), but because he literally grew up on screen. I think that’s ultimately the tiebreaker, and so he’s my pick to take it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Strong pulls an upset.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
The Best Actress nominees are PAMELA ANDERSON in The Last Showgirl, CYNTHIA ERIVO in Wicked, KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN in Emilia Pérez, MIKEY MADISON in Anora, and DEMI MOORE in The Substance.
Anderson is the only one here without an Oscar nod, so that’s one down. If you had asked me two months ago, I’d have said Gascón was a surefire bet to not only be the first trans actor to be nominated for an Oscar, but also to be the first to win. But then the old racist tweets came out, and both the scandal and the poor handling of said scandal pretty much scuttled her chances. Which means it’s between Erivo, Madison and Moore. Personally, I am rooting hard for Madison, but I think Moore’s comeback story will be too much for her fellow actors to ignore.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The Best Actor nominees are ADRIEN BRODY in The Brutalist, TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET in A Complete Unknown, DANIEL CRAIG in Queer, COLMAN DOMINGO in Sing Sing, and RALPH FIENNES in Conclave.
I love Daniel Craig, but no Oscar nod, and see above. I also love Colman Domingo, but honestly this is a three-way race, between Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes. Ultimately, as brilliant as Brody and Chalamet both are, I think that just like his fellow actors will honor Moore, so will they honor Fiennes, who is incredible in Conclave.
Television Categories
Now, for television, the categories are a bit different. Instead of being separated into lead and supporting, all the actors are gathered together, even if they’re playing smaller parts. Like the Emmys, they’re still parceled out into Limited Series/Movie, Comedy, and Drama, but it’s not about the size of the role, it’s about the size of the performance.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
The nominees for Best Female Performance in a Limited Series or Movie are KATHY BATES in The Great Lillian Hall, CATE BLANCHETT in Disclaimer, JODIE FOSTER in True Detective: Night Country, LILY GLADSTONE in Under the Bridge, JESSICA GUNNING in Baby Reindeer, and CRISTIN MILIOTI in The Penguin.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Before I get into who will win that category, I’m also going to list Best Male Performance in a Limited Series or Movie nominees, too. They are JAVIER BARDEM in Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, COLIN FARRELL in The Penguin, RICHARD GADD in Baby Reindeer, KEVIN KLINE in Disclaimer, and ANDREW SCOTT in Ripley.
Quick note, I’m not quite sure how Kathy Bates was nominated for The Great Lillian Hall and Jessica Lange — who actually plays the title role — wasn’t, but I suppose it doesn’t matter. While I think Farrell and Miliotti deserve to win these awards, I think that Baby Reindeer has been a juggernaut for a year, and this will be the victory lap, with Gunning and Gadd both getting to take home one more piece of hardware.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Y’know what? I’m going to do this same thing for the Drama categories, too. The nominees for Best Performance by an Actress in a Drama Series are KATHY BATES (again!) in Matlock, NICOLA COUGHLAN in Bridgerton, ALLISON JANNEY and KERI RUSSELL in the Diplomat, and ANNA SAWAI in Shōgun.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
The nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Drama Series are TADANOBU ASANO and HIROYUKI SANADA in Shōgun, JEFF BRIDGES in Old Man, GARY OLDMAN in Slow Horses, and EDDIE REDMAYNE in The Jackal.
Notice, by the way, a perfect example of combining lead and supporting roles in this category, as Asano was nominated for an Emmy as Supporting Actor and Sanada won for Lead Actor. Personally, I would give every award possible to Gary Oldman for playing Jackson Lamb, the best character on television, but he’s not going to win, because Sanada is, just as Sawai will win the Female award, because everyone loves Shōgun.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Finally, we get to the TV Comedy nominees, so let’s get into the Female nominees for Best Comedic Performance. They are KRISTEN BELL in Nobody Wants This, QUINTA BRUNSON in Abbott Elementary, LIZA COLÓN-ZAYAS and AYO EDEBIRI in The Bear, and JEAN SMART in Hacks.
I love Abbott Elementary and think Quinta Brunson is wonderful, but I don’t actually think she’s the best actor on the show, so it’s odd to me that she’s the one who got the nod. Likewise, while I have a great appreciation for The Bear, I am on record on this website as not understanding how this show is a comedy. I don’t have the space to get into it here (just as I don’t below when I talk about Jeremy Allen White), but for some reason, it is treated as such. That’s why I think Colon-Zayas has a good shot to win, though I believe that Smart should, and probably will.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Last but not least, the nominees for Best Male in a Comedy Series are ADAM BRODY in Nobody Wants This, TED DANSON in A Man on the Inside, HARRISON FORD in Shrinking, MARTIN SHORT in Only Murders in the Building, and the aforementioned JEREMY ALLEN WHITE in The Bear.
White wins every award he’s up for over the last few years, and while I take nothing away from the work that he does, The Bear is not a comedy. So on general principles, while I think he’ll win this, again, it should absolutely go to any of the other four, three of whom are at least septuagenarians (with one of those three being an octo!). If it were up to me, I would give this to either Danson or Ford, both of whom are wonderful on their shows, but I think if it’s not White, it’ll be Brody. Just a hunch.
Okay, this year that’s a big roundup of my predictions for the 2025 SAG Awards. Come back next week for more about the four Academy Award categories, their breakdown, and my predictions. Tune into the SAG Awards live this Sunday at 5 P.M. PST on Netflix.
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