Predicting the Emmy Award Winners for the 3 Casting Categories

If it’s time for another big awards show, then sure enough, Neil Turitz returns to the Casting Networks to make some predictions. We’re trying something a little different this year, branching out from the 12 acting categories to also tackle the three casting ones.

These are a wee bit tougher to handicap than the acting categories, but taking on a tough job doesn’t scare me at all, so let’s dive in and see what we can do with these new categories. First up is Casting in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie.

Category Analysis

When we talk about Drama and Comedy below, we can get into history a bit, and how that plays into who should and will win, but obviously, that’s a lot tougher here. It’s especially tough this year because for the first time that I can recall, any of the five nominees could stake a real argument for why they deserve to win. Across the board, the work is top-notch. Not that the other categories aren’t also filled with deserving nominees, but here, there is no obvious favorite. 

Looking over past winners, it seems like the hottest show won this award. Last year, it was Beef, the year before, The White Lotus, the year before that, The Queen’s Gambit (Do you see a pattern?).

If we apply that to this year’s nominees, I think we can dismiss Feud, which was a brilliantly cast limited series but doesn’t have any juice to it. 

I think I have to say the same thing about Ripley. Again, marvelous work there, but while Andrew Scott has a serious shot at taking home gold (and more about that next week), the fact that the show only got one other acting nomination tells me that it’s not going to win.

That leaves the trio of Baby Reindeer, Fargo and True Detective. If we were to go purely by the number of acting nominations, then Baby Reindeer would get the nod, with four, while the other two have three apiece.

As it happens, my pick does happen to be Baby Reindeer, but not because of that fact. I think that it’s simply the buzziest of the shows on this list, and so it will take the top prize. 

Emmy-Winning Predictions

Having said that, it’s difficult to say that another show should win, because as I said above, if any of these five shows were to take the trophy, it would be deserved. However, I still think that, if I had a vote, I would go with Fargo, because while Baby Reindeer showcased some terrific new talent, Fargo gave us very different sides of actors we thought we knew.

Jon Hamm in the most villainous role of his career, and Juno Temple and Lamorne Morris in complete departures from their terrific Ted Lasso and New Girl work, respectively. Still, I won’t be upset when Nina Gold and Martin Ware take the stage. They will have earned it.

Who Should Win: Fargo
Who Will Win: Baby Reindeer

Casting in a Drama Series Nominees

I am flummoxed by the Drama category because while there appears to be some kind of pattern over the last few years as to how the winners are chosen, there is also the odd wild card. This feels like a wild card year, which I will explain after we list those up for the award.

Category Analysis

First off, there are plenty of shows that get rewarded repeatedly. Going back to 2007, there was a run of 11 years in which eight shows won for their first season. Friday Night Lights, Damages, True Blood, Boardwalk Empire, Homeland, House of Cards, True Detective and Stranger Things, all winning for Season One, with Season Three of Mad Men and two seasons of Game of Thrones in the middle there to mix things up.

However, it hasn’t gone that way lately. In 2018, it was The Crown, but for Season Two, not Season One. A year later, it was Game of Thrones again, beating Succession Season One, though that came back a year later to win for Season Two, and again two years after that for Season Three. In between was The Crown Season Four, and after that, last year, was The White Lotus Season Two, after Season One won, but for a different category.

With that in mind, we should be able to dismiss Mr. & Mrs. Smith and Shogun, both of which were in their first seasons. Also, The Morning Show Season Three, which should be a front-runner purely because of how many of its actors were nominated this year (NINE! We’ll get into that next week, too), but the fact that The Crown has won this twice before would appear to put it in pole position to win again.

Emmy-Winning Predictions

Two things before we anoint it. The first is Nina Gold’s work on Slow Horses. I will get into my love of that show more fully when we talk about the Drama categories, but her work here is undeniably brilliant. If I had a vote, I would write her name down. I don’t believe she’s going to win, but she still has my vote.

Ultimately, I don’t think The Crown is going to win, either, because although it’s been a while since the first season of a show won this award, if you look at the previous winners, many of them were “the hot show” of the time, and many of those years, the show that won the Casting Emmy also won multiple acting awards, too. 

That’s why I think the actual winner will be Shogun, a show that might just sweep the entire Drama division, and it could start right here.

Who Should Win: Slow Horses
Who Will Win: Shogun

Casting in a Comedy Series Nominees

The two previous entries here have talked about patterns in the winners, and that’s going to continue because this is the most interesting one, and that’s the only way I know how to judge this. For the last number of years, it’s either been the first season of a show or a hot show that has a monster performance at the awards.

For instance, since 2018, the first seasons of Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Ted Lasso, Abbott Elementary and The Bear all won this award, with the second season of Fleabag and the final season of Schitt’s Creek mixed in. 

Looking at this year’s nominees, you can imagine how it might be complicated to discern which of these deserving casting directors are going to take home the gold. Let’s take a look at said nominees, and then we can go from there.

Category Analysis

No new shows here, but first things first: there are five deserving nominees, but I think it’s pretty clear that neither the team from Only Murders nor the one from Hacks is going to win this. Again, it’s not that they didn’t cast the hell out of those shows — getting Paul Rudd and Meryl Streep on board Only Murders, for instance, was quite a coup, as were all the delicious little roles so beautifully filled in Hacks — but there are three shows here that I think have a better chance because of the above-mentioned pattern.

Note that the last two winners are again nominated here, Abbott Elementary and The Bear, which is not a funny show, but somehow qualifies as a comedy because it’s a half-hour in length. I even asked Jeanne Bacharach earlier this summer to admit that it’s not a comedy, but she deftly demurred, because she’s brilliant.

Speaking of that, over the last year, my conversations with her, Allison Jones (a previous Emmy winner) and Chris Gehrt have all appeared on this site, and all of them are not just excellent casting directors, they are also stellar human beings, and if there was a world where they could all win, I would want to live there.

Emmy-Winning Predictions

Of course, there isn’t, and we can’t so let’s talk about why one of these winners will win. It would be easy to say The Bear is going to repeat, especially in light of the star-studded second season and all the nominations the regular cast earned, but I suspect that Abbott has a slight advantage, precisely because it wasn’t inundated with celebrities asking to appear on it. I also think that, after The Bear won last year since repeats aren’t a common thing here in recent years, someone else is going to win it. Thus, Abbott over The Bear.

And yet, recall also the reference to “the hot show,” which brings us to Curb. The degree of difficulty in Allison Jones’ job is far higher than it is for the talented crews on the other two shows because there is so much improvisation on Curb. That’s one important aspect to consider. Another is that it’s Curb’s final season, which might lead people to vote for it, even if Susie Essman was robbed of a nomination for Supporting Actress.

I’ll talk about Larry David’s chances in the Best Actor race soon enough, but since we’re here now, I’m going to say that, as much as I love Jeanne and Chris — and not only won’t be upset if they win, I’ll celebrate on their behalf — I will be rooting just a wee bit harder for Allison to take it, rewarding her and Curb for an epic and enormously entertaining run. 

Now, having said all that, do I think it will win? I don’t think I have enough confidence in it to pick it. My money is on O’Brien and Gehrt.

Who Should Win: Curb Your Enthusiasm
Who Will Win: Abbott Elementary

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