Remember yesterday, when I talked about being such a huge fan of all the nominees in the Supporting Actress category? Well, that goes double for today’s group, Including someone I’ve never seen before, but who still blew me away with his performance in a show that he created. Before we get too deeply into that, let’s look at the list of nominees.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Nominees
- Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
- Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
- Jon Hamm, Fargo
- Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
- Andrew Scott, Ripley
Category Analysis
Let’s talk about Richard Gadd first. He has become a sensation as the little Scottish series he created and stars in, Baby Reindeer, became an international phenomenon. As I mentioned yesterday, it’s Jessica Gunning’s performance that is the flashy one, and while Gadd is excellent in the series, I think it’s overshadowed by his co-star.
I wonder also if there’s now something of a mini-backlash against the show, with the legal action by the woman who claims she’s the real inspiration for the show, as well as a certain number of viewers who … well … just don’t get it.
I think Gunning is the show’s winning representative, though it might also win for writing. That, however, is not under my purview, so let’s agree that it’s not Gadd and move on.
The last person to play Truman Capote on-screen won an Oscar for it, so there is a tradition of rewarding an actor who takes on the larger-than-life persona of the late great writer. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is sadly no longer with us, but Tom Hollander is, and he inhabits Capote’s particular skin admirably. To me, though, it feels like more of an impersonation than a performance, and while there’s a subtle difference, I think it’s enough of one to keep him off the stage. Also, there are just more deserving actors this year.
One of them is Matthew Bomer, whose costar Jonathan Bailey should mount the stage earlier in the evening. Bomer is wonderful in Fellow Travelers and is another actor whose timing isn’t great. Some years, this would be the category’s defining performance. Unfortunately for him, this is not that year, because there are not one, but two performances that somehow surpass it.
Emmy-Winning Predictions
Jon Hamm has done very well in his career playing antiheroes. That’s how he first gained fame, as Don Draper in Mad Men, for which he finally won an Emmy on his eighth try.
This is the first time he’s playing a straight villain, and he earns this nod with an especially vicious turn as a homicidal South Dakota sheriff who believes he has more power than he does. Hamm is menacing and downright scary in a way he never has been, and it’s impossible to take your eyes off him. It’s perhaps the best thing he’s ever done, minus Draper of course, and blows away his other major role this year, which we will discuss tomorrow.
Still, as good as he is — and he is good — I don’t think he wins because of how brilliant Andrew Scott is in the title role of Netflix’s Ripley adaptation. Scott is magnetic as the legendary literary conman Thomas Ripley, oozing charm and deceit with every breath.
If the only adaptation of author Patricia Highsmith’s work you’ve ever seen is the one that starred Matt Damon a quarter century ago, do yourself a favor and sit down to watch this more immersive version. Damon is a talented guy, no question, but what Scott does here makes it seem like Damon was in a school play.
If I were voting, I would seriously consider flipping a coin to decide whether I would vote for Scott or Hamm, then I would think about it one more time and would write Scott’s name down. I think most Emmy voters will do the same.
Who Should Win: Andrew Scott
Who Will Win: Andrew Scott
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
It’s interesting how many movie stars have turned to television in recent years. Whereas back in the day, movie actors never stopped to show up in television series, now the lines are decidedly blurred. Actors like Robert Downey Jr. can win an Oscar and appear in a limited series in the same year, while an actor, like, say, Bryan Cranston, can go off and make movies after winning a bunch of Emmys for his TV work.
It’s a boon to the industry and a blessing to viewers who get to watch anthology shows like True Detective, in which one movie star after another shows up. But of course, it’s not limited to that show, as there are no less than three nominees in this category who are known for their film work.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Nominees
- Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
- Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
- Juno Temple, Fargo
- Sofia Vergara, Griselda
- Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Category Analysis
One of those movie stars, of course, is Brie Larson, who gives a lovely performance in the Apple TV+ show Lessons in Chemistry, which should come as no surprise from a bona fide movie star who also happens to be an Oscar winner. It’s a fun series, and Larson leads a strong cast that earned a total of three nominations here, as we discussed yesterday, I think she’s not a real contender here, though, because she’s young, she has more opportunities in her future and ultimately I don’t think it measures up to what the other actresses in this category did.
Another is Naomi Watts, who was genuinely terrific as Babe Paley in the latest edition of Ryan Murphy’s Feud series, but who also starred in a series that didn’t get nominated for the Best Movie or Limited Series Emmy, and I tend to think that those kinds of nominations fall by the wayside because it tells the voters that maybe they don’t have to watch it. Cynical, I know, but not untrue either.
Emmy-Winning Predictions
This leaves the third movie star, Jodie Foster, going against TV stars Sofia Vergara and Juno Temple.
I suspect that Foster is the betting favorite, because this year has been something of a comeback for her. She has had this nod as well as a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination for Nyad, and people do love her. I liked her plenty in the latest version of True Detective, but I don’t know.
Vergara is undergoing a pretty impressive physical transformation in what is a labor of love for her, and then there’s how supremely different Temple’s role in Fargo is from her previously nominated work in Ted Lasso.
Vergara was nominated four times previously for Modern Family but never won. Temple was nominated three times for Ted Lasso. Part of me thinks that the Academy is going to reward one of them for their career work and for how different these roles are from the ones that made them stars.
The other part of me thinks they’re going to give it to Foster for her star power and that whole comeback thing, as well as the “It’s her year” notion that I brought up yesterday while discussing Robert Downey Jr.’s chances.
Tough call. If I had a vote, I think I would give it to Temple, but as to who I think is going to take it, my inherent cynicism about matters such as these is telling me, Foster.
Who Should Win: Juno Temple
Who Will Win: Jodie Foster
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