Predicting the 76th Primetime Emmy Award Winners: Outstanding Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series

September 13, 2024 | Neil Turitz
Photo Credit: Joe Seer / Shutterstock.com.

One of the best things about this category is that there is not one single actor in it from The Morning Show. The same cannot be said of the other category covered today (below this one).

For this brief moment, we can have a conversation about a Drama acting Emmy without having to discuss anyone from that show. Let’s take a look at the six gentlemen who have been honored with nominations for Best Actor in a Drama Series.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Nominees

  • Idris Elba, Hijack
  • Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
  • Walton Goggins, Fallout
  • Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
  • Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun
  • Dominic West,
  • The Crown

Category Analysis

It’s hard not to love Idris Elba, but I think even his biggest fan was stunned to see him get a nod here. He’s been nominated five previous times — four of them for playing the title role in the popular Luther series — and of course, he should have been nominated at least once for The Wire, but this is such a surprise, I cannot think of any reality in which he wins this award. 

Speaking of The Wire, Dominic West is another actor who absolutely and positively should have been nominated for that show. I’m genuinely shocked that it’s taken this long for him to be recognized, which adds up to a whole lot of surprise in this category, and we’re only a third of the way through it.

That’s pretty much where the surprises end. Both Walton Goggins and Donald Glover earned their spots here, but again, the nominations are their reward. Goggins should have won a Supporting Actor Emmy for his work in Justified, one of the best shows of this century, but was only nominated once, which is a crime. Glover won multiple Emmys for the tour de force that was Atlanta and has been nominated a total of 14 times. He will undoubtedly win again, just not this year.

Emmy-Winning Predictions

The person who should win this award is Gary Oldman, who personifies one of the all-time great television characters, Jackson Lamb.

In Slow Horses, my choice for the best show currently on the air, he is a slovenly, sour, profane burnout, who also happens to be the most dangerous man in England’s domestic spy service. It is a pleasure to watch Oldman in action, in a role he loves playing. The one drawback to the show is that it’s only six episodes per season, so I’ve started reading the novels on which each season is based to get more Lamb in my life.

In every episode, he offers a tour de force of menace, intrigue and comedy, all in equal measure. There’s nothing else on the air like it.

Sadly, though, he’s running into the Shōgun buzzsaw, which means he’s going to see Hiroyuki Sanada climb the stage to accept the award that, by rights, should go to Oldman. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of Sanada’s, and he is dynamite in Shōgun. His performance in a terrific show stands out, even among all the other actors who are nominated here, and who are going to win.

In most other years, when someone like Oldman wasn’t in the race, Sanada would have my vote. The thing is, he’s going to have most other people’s votes, anyway, so mine wouldn’t much matter. I won’t be upset about this, because Sanada truly is outstanding, but I will look to next year when Oldman will again be eligible (the new season of Slow Horses premiered earlier this month). Since there won’t be a new season of Shōgun before next fall at the earliest, Sanada will not. Hopefully, Gary will get his due then.

Who Should Win: Gary Oldman
Who Will Win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

And, we’re back to the land of The Morning Show. How lovely.

I want to reiterate that I don’t have anything against The Morning Show, per se. I think it’s perfectly fine. Sometimes, it’s really good. I just don’t happen to believe that it warrants nine acting awards out of the 20 eligible spots. The Academy needs to do better than this.

Ultimately, it’s not going to matter all that much, but let’s dive into the nominees anyway, and then we can salute these actresses as we discuss why one of them is a sure thing to win.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Nominees

  • Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
  • Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
  • Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
  • Anna Sawai, Shōgun
  • Imelda Staunton, The Crown
  • Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

Category Analysis

This might be the easiest of these essays to write, because of how straightforward this category is. We can dispense with the two Morning Show leading ladies first. Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon are both titanic talents, and they spar beautifully on the show.

Aniston is one of the biggest TV stars in the medium’s history, and Witherspoon is a bona fide movie star who has done some pretty spectacular work on the small screen. Not just here, but also in Big Little Lies.

It may come as a surprise to you that she won her single Emmy award for that show, but as a producer, not as an actress. She was nominated for Best Actress in the show’s first season but lost to costar Nicole Kidman. Likewise, it’s sort of a stunner that Aniston has only won one of these trophies, too, for one of the later seasons of Friends. Both are great, both are deserving and both will remain in their seats when the category’s winner is announced on the big night.

The same goes for Carrie Coon, whose work I adore and who plays a smiling protagonist/villainess with unbridled gusto in the uneven The Gilded Age. The show is entertaining in an odd way, while also sometimes crossing into the unwatchable. Somehow, though, Coon grounds it in some semblance of a reality that keeps me coming back to it. Her work is really impressive, and part of the show’s fun. 

Like Maya Erskine, she too doesn’t have a chance this year. It’s a shame about Erskine, too, because she’s done fine work on a series of smaller shows — like Casual and the late, lamented Pen15, which she also co-created — and so it was fun to see her break out in something bigger like Mr. & Mrs. Smith, but this is another time where the nomination is the reward. 

Emmy-Winning Predictions

There is no question at all about Anna Sawai winning this award. It’s as much of a shoo-in as any other category in any division. She was the best part of a very good show, a genuine breakout who jumped off the screen and gave a remarkable performance that stayed with viewers long after the character left the proverbial stage. Sawai is a star, full stop, and this was her coming out party. An absolute pleasure to behold.

Who Should Win: Anna Sawai
Who Will Win: Anna Sawai

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