These last two categories are, to me, the most fun. In theory, both this category and the next one should be easy to call, but I’m thinking that they might be trickier than first glance might suggest. Let’s get to the nominees for Best Actor in a Comedy Series.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Nominees
- Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows
- Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
- Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
- Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
- Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
- D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs
Category Analysis
First and foremost, let’s take a moment to recognize just how momentous it is that D’Pharoah Woon-A-Tai got a nomination here. Reservation Dogs is one of those shows that never used to break through. In the past, similar shows would last for a season or two, maybe renewed because whatever network or streaming service was airing it had someone in-house fighting on its behalf, with a tiny but passionate viewership that would make people refer to it later as a “beloved cult classic.”
These days, though, Reservation Dogs is a bona fide hit, with millions of people watching it, and has whatever the modern equivalent of the water cooler factor is. Woon-A-Tai being nominated is a testament to the show’s quality and crossover appeal. It also is a signal that the business is continuing to change, and for the better.
That being said, he’s not going to win, nor is Matt Berry, hilarious as he is in What We Do in the Shadows. That’s another one that has crossed over in a way that never would have even a decade ago.
Unlike other entries in this category, Berry is in a show that is, y’know, funny (I had to go there, and will again in a couple of paragraphs). However, even if I thought he might beat out one of the other four guys in this group, I don’t believe enough voters will have watched the show to get him across the finish line.
Emmy-Winning Predictions
This brings us to the dynamic duo of Steve Martin and Martin Short. Partners, best pals, costars, and for the third consecutive year, Emmy competitors. I’m always perplexed by the two of them because their roles and performances are so codependent and intertwined. If I had to guess, I would give Steve the slight edge over Martin, just because there was a bit more of an emotional bite to Steve’s role this past year. Also, that patter song he does in the show in and of itself gives him an edge.
This comes down to Jeremy Allen White and Larry David. The Bear has all that momentum, and the second season was amazing, even though it’s not terribly funny. I know I’ve covered this, but I can’t help it. It bears repeating. No pun intended.
Okay, seriously (like The Bear), White is simply awesome in season two of the show, and he won this Emmy for the first season. There’s no reason to think that people won’t vote for him again — except for the fact that this was the final season of Curb Your Enthusiasm, and David and his team stuck the landing.
It was the funniest Curb season in years, and there’s something to that for voters. Curmudgeonly as he might be, Larry David is pret-tay, pret-tayy, pretty beloved, and I think enough people may be lamenting that he folded up the tent and went home that they’re going to reward him for an incredible run that has been almost uninterrupted for more than three decades.
Now, I think it’s worth mentioning that Ebon Moss-Bachrach was not that great in season one of The Bear, but won the Emmy for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series because of the awesome season two — in which he was brilliant— that aired during voting, so it was fresh in their minds and so he won the trophy. That factor could work against White here, because I think people didn’t love season three, and it might lead people to look elsewhere. If they do, they’re going to look right at El Baldo.
Larry David could take this. I don’t think I can bring myself to call the upset, because White started with a huge lead and will probably hold onto it.
That being said, if I had only one vote in any of the categories we’ve covered so far, Larry David would get it. I wish I had the guts to say that he’ll win, but … I don’t think I do. And I’m going to kick myself pret-tay, pret-tayy, pretty hard if he does.
Who Should Win: Larry David
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
And then, they came to the end. What a magical ride this Emmy prediction season has been (so much fun, and yet so fleeting). It’s been six days, and yet, here we are, in the final category for the 2024 Emmy Awards, Best Actress in a Comedy Series. Let’s get to the nominees, shall we?
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Nominees
- Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
- Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
- Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
- Maya Rudolph, Loot
- Jean Smart, Hacks
- Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
Category Analysis
What a thrill to see Selena Gomez finally nominated for her work in Only Murders in the Building. For three years, she’s not only held her own going head-to-head with Steve Martin and Martin Short, but she’s matched them perfectly.
I don’t think I’ve ever really given Gomez enough credit, but she’s made me a believer over these three years. It’s nice to see her finally getting her due. That said, the fact that it’s taken this long tells me she’s not going to win this award. Maybe a year or two down the road, but not this time.
There is nothing not to love about the two Saturday Night Live vets and dear friends Maya Rudolph and Kirsten Wiig. Well, except for their shows. I didn’t love either one, although I do love them. I honestly don’t know how many voters saw Loot and Palm Royale or if they just voted for these two because they’re so popular and fabulous. I don’t mean that to be in any way minimizing or dismissive, I just think the race is coming down to the last three women in this category.
Ayo Edebiri won the Supporting Actress in a Comedy last year for The Bear’s first season (no more “The Bear isn’t funny” comments anymore, I promise), but for season two, she’s been bumped up to Lead Actress. At the beginning of the summer, I think I might’ve tagged her as the favorite here, because of the magical run the show has been on.
Edebiri is a terrific actress and she deserves to be here, but remember what I said above about the complication of The Bear’s third season and how it affects the voting for this season’s Emmys? If there was any doubt about it for this category, I believe that sealed it.
Also, to be fair, while there’s an outside chance she could break through, I tend to believe that either Quinta Brunson or Jean Smart is going to win.
Emmy-Winning Predictions
Let’s start with Smart. She has won this award for each of Hacks’ first two seasons, so it’s easy to think that she’ll win again for a strong third season. And yet (and there always seems to be an “and yet”), this season was much more about Hannah Einbinder’s Ava than about Smart’s Deborah. At least, that big ending was, and the endings are what tend to stick with people.
Brunson, meanwhile, won this award last year, after having won previously for writing the show. This means you’ve got the last two winners facing off against each other, and the most recent one, Brunson, was even better this year than last. We talked about this a bit previously with Tyler James Williams, but the three-season build-up to the two of them finally getting together was pitch-perfect, as was the payoff.
It’s tough to vote against Brunson, especially since, as much as I love Smart, and as much as I enjoyed this third season of Hacks, I believe that Brunson should win. Unfortunately, I don’t think she will, because I think Smart’s taking the Emmy home.
Who Should Win: Quinta Brunson
Who Will Win: Jean Smart
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