Yesterday I gave my insights and predictions on who I think will win in the Male Actor categories at the Golden Globes. Today, I’ll cover my Female Actor predictions.
Key Insights
- The film drama race is framed as a close Buckley versus Reinsve contest, with indie credibility and international buzz weighing heavily against star power.
- Cynthia Erivo and Amy Madigan emerge as the clearest consensus picks of the night, dominating their respective categories with little serious competition.
- On the television side, momentum and recent cultural heat play a decisive role, fueling bold calls like Rhea Seehorn’s drama win and a surprise victory for Jenna Ortega.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The nominees are Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby, Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love, Jessie Buckley, Hamnet, Julia Roberts, After The Hunt, Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value and Tessa Thompson, Hedda.
Look, I love Julia Roberts as much as the next guy, but … seriously? Victor’s presence here is a salute to indie film and Lawrence is here for the star power, which leaves three. Personally, I thought what Thompson did in Hedda was electrifying, which is not a word I throw around very often, but I also think that, while the Golden Globes doesn’t really have anything to do with the Oscars — literally no one is a voter for both awards — they sometimes serve as a bellwether.
To me, the race is between Buckley and Reinsve, which is how I think the Oscar race is going to come down, too (with one person in the next category mixed in, but I’ll get to that). Honestly, I think it’s a toss up, but I have become a huge fan of the Norwegian Reinsve, so I’ll root for her, but will go against my instincts and say that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will vote for Buckley.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Renate Reinsve
WHO WILL WIN: Jessie Buckley
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The nominees are Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee, Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another, Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Emma Stone, Bugonia, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue and Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
I suppose that The Testament of Ann Lee is technically a musical, but someone is going to have to explain to me how One Battle After Another is a comedy, though I know I didn’t mention it yesterday. It doesn’t really matter in the long run, because I think this is Cynthia Erivo’s to lose. That might be the deal with the Oscars, too.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cynthia Erivo
WHO WILL WIN: Cynthia Erivo
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
The nominees are Amy Madigan, Weapons, Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine and Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another.
Y’know, in any other year, I’d say that Ariana Grande would be a shoo-in for this award. Two great, career-changing performances in two movies (the second of which, admittedly, was nowhere near as good as the first, but that wasn’t her fault), plus the opportunity for the HFPA to slobber at her feet?
Made to order, even in a year with Taylor’s stunning work in One Battle After Another, and both Fanning’s and the relatively unknown Lilleaas’ spectacular work in Sentimental Value. Literally any other year, that’s what I would say. But no other year contains the amazing Amy Madigan — of whom I have been a fan for more than four decades — and her otherworldly turn as the year’s best villain, a role that I think will win the legendary character actress an Oscar in a few weeks.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Amy Madigan
WHO WILL WIN: Amy Madigan
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
The nominees are Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us, Britt Lower, Severance, Helen Mirren, MobLand, Kathy Bates, Matlock, Keri Russell, The Diplomat and Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus.
I love Helen Mirren as much as I love Julia Roberts, but the only reason she’s here is star power. Everyone else is either an Emmy nominee or will be next year. My first instinct when I saw this list was Russell for the endlessly fun The Diplomat, but then I thought a bit more and changed my tune.
Lower is coming off a big win at last year’s Emmys, but Seehorn wasn’t competing against her yet. I imagine they won’t compete against each other later this year, either, because there won’t be a new season of Severance in time, but maybe some day. This one time they’re facing off, I think the recent sensation that Pluribus has become — the HFPA loves recent sensations — will lift the Better Call Saul stalwart to a win.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Rhea Seehorn
WHO WILL WIN: Rhea Seehorn
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The nominees are Ayo Edebiri, The Bear, Jean Smart, Hacks, Jenna Ortega, Wednesday, Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This, Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face and Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building.
Either Edebiri or Smart has won this three of the last four years, with the streak only broken by Quinta Brunson, who for some reason isn’t nominated. On the one hand, it’s easy to think that one of them will climb the stage again — my money would be on the stupendous Smart, who is in a show that is, y’know, actually funny — but something tells me that the HFPA will want to see the esoteric Ortega take the stage. Also, I think the other two will split the vote. This is the one big upset I’m calling.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jean Smart
WHO WILL WIN: Jenna Ortega
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
The nominees are Amanda Seyfried, Long Bright River, Claire Danes, The Beast in Me, Michelle Williams, Dying For Sex, Rashida Jones, Black Mirror, Robin Wright, The Girlfriend and Sarah Snook, All Her Fault.
Snook has won a Globe recently, for Succession, Danes has won a couple of them, and Wright has won one, too. Seyfried and Williams have both been nominated but never won, and this is the first time Jones has been invited to this party, though she did also get an Emmy nod for the same role. I think what Williams did in Dying for Sex was one of the most amazing things I saw on TV last year, and there’s no reason to think she won’t finally take the stage for it.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams
WHO WILL WIN: Michelle Williams
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ON TELEVISION
The nominees are Aimee Lou Wood, Carrie Coon and Parker Posey, The White Lotus, Catherine O’Hara, The Studio, Erin Doherty, Adolescence and Hannah Einbinder, Hacks.
Remember what I said yesterday about Graham and Cooper for Adolescence? Same goes here. Doherty won the Emmy, she’ll win this, and she’ll deserve it as much as her male co-stars.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Erin Doherty
WHO WILL WIN: Erin Doherty
See you next month for the Actor Awards, and then, The Oscars!
The Golden Globes will be live streamed on CBS via Paramount+, and through live TV services like Hulu+, Live TV, Fubo, or DirecTV on Sunday, January 11th, 2026 at 5PM PST.
Key Takeaways
- The Golden Globes continue to reward a mix of prestige performances, recent buzz, and strategic star appeal rather than acting purely as an Oscar predictor.
- Veteran actors and long overdue performances are positioned to finally get their moment, particularly in supporting categories.
- A few calculated upsets are expected, underscoring the Globes’ reputation for unpredictability even in otherwise crowded fields.
