And now to Part Deux: The Women! Without further ado, let’s dive right in.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees are Emma Stone, Bugonia, Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jessie Buckley, Hamnet, Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another and Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue.
Four of these five actresses also earned Oscar nods, with only Chase Infiniti on the outs, thanks to the Academy’s recognition of Sentimental Value’s Renate Reinsve and her phenomenal work in one of my favorite films of the year (though, full disclosure, she and director Joachim Trier had me with their previous effort, The Worst Person in the World, one of the best films of the 21st century so far), but of course I don’t actually think any of that matters.
I suppose there’s a chance that Byrne pulls an upset, but I’m starting to think that Buckley’s march to an Oscar is inevitable, and this will be just another step along the way. Not that she won’t deserve it.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jessie Buckley
WHO WILL WIN: Jessie Buckley
FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees are Amy Madigan, Weapons, Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another, Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good, Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme and Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners.
This one is far more interesting, especially with the recent rise of Taylor as a serious contender. I have thought, since seeing Weapons in the theater — an increasing rarity for someone with a toddler — that Madigan was going to take the Oscar for her spectacular work in the film, and it wouldn’t be close. I still think she’ll win that award, though I no longer believe it’s the sure thing I once did. Still, for this category, where only actors vote, I think that as tremendous as Taylor is in her limited time on screen (she basically disappears after the movie’s first 40 minutes or so), SAG-AFTRA members do enjoy recognizing longtime working actors who have been at it for decades, like Madigan. That’s why I’m picking her here.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Amy Madigan
WHO WILL WIN: Amy Madigan
FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees are Keri Russell, The Diplomat, Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus, Britt Lower, Severance, and Parker Posey and Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus.
In a different year, I would lean toward Lower, who won the Emmy for this category back in September. I might even consider one of the other three, but this is Rhea Seehorn’s time now. She won the Golden Globe, she’ll win this, and she’ll win the Emmy in six months. Easiest choice of this bunch.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Rhea Seehorn
WHO WILL WIN: Rhea Seehorn
FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees are Jean Smart, Hacks, Jenna Ortega, Wednesday, Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale, and Catherine O’Hara and Kathryn Hahn, The Studio.
Since Hacks first premiered in 2020, Jean Smart has been eligible for this award four times in five years. She has won each of the previous three times, and there is no reason to believe she won’t win a fourth. Especially since neither The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri nor Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson are nominated.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jean Smart
WHO WILL WIN: Jean Smart
FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
The nominees are Claire Danes, The Beast in Me, Michelle Williams, Dying For Sex, Sarah Snook, All Her Fault, and Christine Tremarco and Erin Doherty, Adolescence.
This is the most painful one of the bunch for me, because, as I said in my Golden Globes predictions, Michelle Williams gave my favorite performance of any woman on TV last year. Two of my other favorites were Tremarco and Doherty in Adolescence, and because these two competed in the Supporting Actress categories at the Emmys and Globes, they were never in direct competition with Williams. Now, it’s all one category, which is only frustrating for me because I have to make a choice, as Doherty’s performance is probably my second favorite from a female actor last year. The year of Adolescence comes to a close at this ceremony, and just as I expect Owen Cooper to win the male counterpart of this award, I will be beyond shocked if Doherty doesn’t take this one.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams
WHO WILL WIN: Erin Doherty
