Last month when I made my Golden Globes predictions, I warned you that I’d be back for the Actor Awards, and since it’s now that time, here I am! I know, I know, you’re very excited, especially since I nailed 10 of 14 at the Globes, and two of my four misses came from the “should win,” so if you ask me, it was even more impressive.
Interestingly, while the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) are a better bellwether for the Oscars than the Globes, there are some prominent names missing from the following lists that lead me to believe that perhaps this year might not be like the others. The absence of literally all actors from foreign movies is telling, especially when you consider that Stellan Skarsgård is the clear frontrunner for Supporting Actor, and not one but two of his Sentimental Value costars are serious contenders for Supporting Actress.
A year ago, two of four winners (Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin) won Academy Awards, while the other two (Demi Moore and Timothée Chalamet) did not. What does that mean for the film categories? Mostly that they might be more wide open than you’d think. I suspect the TV categories are less so, but let’s dive in and see. We’ll start with the male acting categories, film and TV, rapid-fire style. Tomorrow, we’ll get to the actresses.
Key Insights
- Repetition matters: when an actor like Timothée Chalamet dominates a category, it signals that sustained excellence and smart role selection can turn talent into narrative momentum.
- Career positioning can outweigh flash, as contenders like Benicio del Toro and Paul Mescal show how timing, visibility, and industry perception shape wins as much as the performance itself.
- On television, consistency is king: actors such as Noah Wyle and Seth Rogen prove that building a season long arc audiences invest in can become an awards engine.
MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees are Michael B. Jordan, Sinners, Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another, Jesse Plemons, Bugonia and Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon.
It’s a shame Globe winner Wagner Moura isn’t in this category, because I really believe he gave the performance of the year, rivaled only, really, by Chalamet, who won this category last year. I think the kid repeats as the winner, something that has literally never happened before in the history of this award, because as good as Jordan is, Chalamet is transcendent in Marty Supreme’s title role.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Timothée Chalamet
WHO WILL WIN: Timothée Chalamet
MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees are Miles Caton, Sinners, Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein, Paul Mescal, Hamnet and Sean Penn, One Battle After Another.
Again, the man I think is going to win the Oscar, Stellan Skarsgård, isn’t nominated here, which is a crime, but what can you do? There are something like 110,000 voting members of SAG-AFTRA, and maybe a lot of them aren’t into foreign films. Perhaps it’s uncouth to suggest that the members of the Academy have more refined tastes, but sometimes honesty is a difficult swallow. Anyway, focusing on what we have here, there are genuine arguments for everyone. I think there’s a chance that del Toro and Penn split the vote of OBAA fans, and since Caton and Elordi are both terrific in their respective films, and people like to recognize new talent, they each also have a shot. That’s why I think Paul Mescal might emerge from the group to win though, because he’s still on the rise, but more established than the other two. On the other hand, he didn’t land an Oscar nod, so it’s possible that people give it to del Toro, who I think is better in OBAA than Penn, who, honestly, underwhelmed me. I don’t want to flip a coin, but it’s that close. I do like Benicio, so I’ll go with him.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Stellan Skarsgård Benicio del Toro
WHO WILL WIN: Benicio del Toro
MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
The nominees are Noah Wyle, The Pitt, Walton Goggins, The White Lotus, Sterling K. Brown, Paradise, Gary Oldman, Slow Horses and Billy Crudup, The Morning Show.
As I reiterated last month when I wrote about the Globes, this category will always be easy for me to declare who should win it. Gary Oldman deserves every award that recognizes greatness in televised drama as long as he’s playing Jackson Lamb on Slow Horses. Period. End of sentence and paragraph and everything else. But he’s not going to win, because Noah Wyle continues to win every conceivable award for his turn on The Pitt, and if you’ve seen the show, it’s honestly hard to argue.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman
WHO WILL WIN: Noah Wyle
MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
The nominees are Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This, Ted Danson, Man on the Inside, Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building, and Seth Rogen and Ike Barinholtz, The Studio.
This is the first time in four years that Jeremy Allen White is eligible for this award and not nominated, though last year he lost to Martin Short, so it’s not like he had a lock on the category. I personally love Ted Danson and think he’s amazing on Man on the Inside, and I think this most recent season of Only Murders in the Building wasn’t just the weakest in the show’s run, it was downright bad. Not that any of this matters, because Seth Rogen will, like the above-mentioned Mr. Wyle, continue his run of wins in the category. I suppose it’s possible that his costar Barinholtz will upset him, but I doubt it.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Ted Danson
WHO WILL WIN: Seth Rogen
MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
The nominees are Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story, Owen Cooper and Stephen Graham, Adolescence, Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit and Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me.
This one would be easy, if not for the fact that, for the first time, Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper are in the same category. Honestly, I think if you were to ask Graham himself who he wants to win, he would look you in the eye, tell you “Owen Cooper,” and he would mean it. Fabulous as Graham is in Adolescence, I just think the kid is so majestic, everyone else will feel the same. I know I do.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Owen Cooper
WHO WILL WIN: Owen Cooper
Key Takeaways
- Choose roles that stretch you beyond competence into transformation, because the work that feels slightly dangerous, the kind audiences call transcendent, is what separates you from a crowded field.
- Think long term about your career narrative; awards bodies respond not just to one great performance but to the story of your rise, your risks, and your evolution.
- In ensembles and limited series, generosity and clarity can steal the spotlight, as rising talents like Owen Cooper remind us that truth and specificity beat volume every time.
