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Predicting the Golden Globes Movie Acting Categories

Hi, everybody! I’m back! Because if there’s a major awards show, you’d better believe I’m going to return to make my predictions about it. Now, granted, the Golden Globes are a bit of a crap shoot because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is known for being a squirrelly lot, and much more unpredictable than either the Motion Picture or Television Academies. Even so, using previous winners as a guide, and understanding at least a little bit about how the HFPA thinks, we’re going to take a go at prognosticating tonight’s big winners.

First up, Best Actress and Actor in Motion Picture Drama. The nominees for the former are Cate Blanchett for Tár, Olivia Colman for Empire of Light, Viola Davis for The Woman King, Ana de Armas for Blonde and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans. For the latter, the nominees are Austin Butler for Elvis, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Hugh Jackman for The Son, Bill Nighy for Living and Jeremy Pope for Inspection.

Actress first: this is between Viola Davis and Michelle Williams. Blanchett has won this award thrice before, but even though her movie is a big critical hit and is certain to corral plenty of Oscar nominations (not sure why, to be honest, as I wasn’t a fan), the Globes are now going to be caught between their love of Steven Spielberg and their desire to honor people of color, thanks to their recent racism controversies that led to last year’s ceremony not being televised and Tom Cruise returning the three trophies he’d previously won. That said, I think their love of Spielberg will trump their desire to be seen as, y’know, not racist. Davis deserves it, but Williams will win.

On the Actor side, Jackman’s nomination is for being Hugh Jackman, and Pope’s is one of recognition. Which leaves Butler, Fraser and Nighy. Personally, I think there has not been any performance this year anywhere near as good as Nighy’s, but I also think he’s got a better shot at an Oscar than this award, because the HFPA loves honoring up and coming talent like Butler. The only thing it likes more? Honoring a comeback like Fraser’s. That’s why I think Brendan wins for The Whale.

For the Comedy or Musical division, the Best Actress nominees are Lesly Manville for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Margot Robbie for Babylon, Anya Taylor-Joy for The Menu, Emma Thompson for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande and Michelle Yeoh, for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Actor nominees are Diego Calva for Babylon, Daniel Craig for Glass Onion, Adam Driver for White Noise, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin and Ralph Fiennes for The Menu.

I think both of these are actually pretty easy. The Actress race is between Thompson and Yeoh, both of whom were transcendent in two performances that sort of accidentally showcase why awards shows are sometimes dumb, because how can you compare the two? Silly or not, I think Yeoh wins, because people love her and it’s a pretty remarkable thing she pulled off. The Actor category is even simpler: it’s Colin Farrell, who has won this award before for a Martin McDonagh movie (In Bruges) and will win this one going away.

I’m running out of space, so I’ll rip through Supporting Actress and Actor as quickly as I can. Actress nominees are Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Dolly De Leon for Triangle of Sadness and Carey Mulligan for She Said. Actor noms are Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brad Pitt for Babylon, Ke Huy Yuan for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Eddie Redmayne for The Good Nurse.

Again, Actress first. If this were the Oscars, I would say Condon is the favorite, but because it’s the Globes, I think they’ll reward Curtis for her late career renaissance, as well as her standout work in EEAAO. On the Actor side, I think Yuan’s comeback deserves recognition (see above and Fraser, Brendan), but I suspect that they won’t want to reward Farrell without also doing so for his partner in crime, Gleeson. So I’ll place my bet on the Irishman.

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