Predicting the 96th Academy Awards Winners: Best Supporting Actor Category
I didn’t talk about this yesterday, but the Academy tends to be almost boorishly snobbish about rewarding comedy. Almost as boorish as it is with action, adventure and comic book films. Yes, Black Panther got nominated a bunch of years ago, and Top Gun: Maverick last year (when it deserved to win it all if you ask me), but they’re the exceptions to the rule. Tom Cruise should have been nominated for Best Actor but was passed over, and I would argue that Robert Downey Jr. should have been nominated for his decade-plus work as Tony Stark in Avengers: Endgame.
Not since Annie Hall won the Best Picture prize in 1977 has a comedy won it all, which is the same year the Best Actor trophy went to someone in a comedy (Richard Dreyfus for The Goodbye Girl).
So it’s a bit strange that female comedic performances, in both lead and supporting categories, tend to get their due, as do supporting male performances. It doesn’t happen often (thrice in the last dozen years in the Best Actress category —the same amount of wins in 26 years for Supporting Actress— and four times in the last 20 for Supporting Actor), but it does happen. People in the supporting categories tend to regularly show up from these other genres as well, up to and including last year, when Angela Bassett earned a nod for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
Why am I talking about this? Well, let’s take a look at the nominees and all will become clear. They are: Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon, the aforementioned Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction and Ryan Gosling for Barbie.
You’re up to speed now, right? Great. Let’s dive in. Ruffalo has been here before — most recently for Spotlight — and that’s only interesting because I think that he took a nomination from one of his co-stars in that movie, too. Taking nothing away from the actor’s work in either film, I thought Michael Keaton should have been nominated for the 2017 Best Picture winner, just as I was sort of stunned that Willem Dafoe didn’t get one this year for Poor Things. I don’t ultimately think that’s why he’s not going to win, but neither do I believe I’m alone in this belief.
Robert De Niro has had something of a renaissance lately. I was totally surprised he didn’t get a nod a few years back for The Irishman, but his work as a fiendishly evil oil man in Flowers is his best work in years, so it makes sense to me that the actors’ branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences recognized him.
That said, I don’t think he’s winning this, either, nor for that matter is Sterling K. Brown, who is fantastic in American Fiction, in another comedic role. In most other years, just as I would put Jodie Foster in the pole position for Supporting Actress, I would do the same for what Brown does in Cord Jefferson’s terrific movie.
But this year, he’s against a juggernaut and a spoiler. The former is RDJ, the latter is Ryan Gosling. RDJ is a brilliant actor and it’s refreshing to see him show up here. Don’t get me wrong, I loved his Tony Stark (see above) and I enjoy his Sherlock Holmes, but did you know that aside from a cameo or two this is only the fourth major role he has had in the last 16 years that wasn’t either Iron Man or Sherlock?
It’s both rewarding and frustrating to see him be so good here because it reminds us not only how talented he is, but also what we’ve been missing for the last decade and a half. His work here in Oppenheimer is spectacular, and I think it’s sort of a foregone conclusion that he’s going to win this. Generally speaking, I’m fine with that and won’t be terribly upset about it, because he’s a talented and admired person and this will be as much a career reward as it is for this particular performance. Won’t be the first time that’s happened, won’t be the last.
As much as I love RDJ, and as much as I thought he was dynamite in Oppenheimer, I think Gosling deserves this a bit more. I mean, the degree of difficulty alone in playing Ken the way he did is daunting enough, but for him to pull it off?
Margot Robbie is amazing as Barbie, but Gosling steals every scene he’s in, which is saying something when one considers how much talent is around him. I like his overall oeuvre as much as the next person and love how consistently good he is, but this is a different level entirely. I wonder if this isn’t going to be a situation like the Best Actor race a couple of years ago, when Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman because people kept saying, “Chadwick’s gonna win, but I’m voting for Sir Anthony.” Not saying that will happen this time, I’m saying it could.
Ultimately, I think it’s RDJ’s to lose. If anyone is going to pull an upset, it’s Gosling. That win would be well deserved.
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
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