2025 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor and Actress in a Drama Series

It’s Emmy season once again, and with it comes the difficult task of picking a winner from a sea of outstanding talent. While some categories are an easy choice, the drama divisions are anything but.

The nominations for both Outstanding Supporting Actor and Outstanding Supporting Actress are stacked with incredible performances, making for a much tougher analysis. So, let’s get into the good stuff.

What You’ll Find in This Article

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: The Nominees

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: The Nominees

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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: The Nominees

First up for discussion is the companion category to Supporting Actress, for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. The nominees are:

Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs and Sam Rockwell for The White Lotus

James Marsden for Paradise

Zach Cherry, Tramell Tillman and John Turturro for Severance

The Severance Trio

Let’s start with the Severance trio.

Zach Cherry gives the performance of his life in the episode “The After Hours.” It’s the kind of thing that can change a person’s career. In a sense, it has, because it earned him an Emmy nomination, one that I think most people would not have imagined he’d get. The nomination is his reward.

John Turturro was nominated for his work in Severance three years ago, and it makes sense that he would earn another. Still, just like Cherry’s nod, I think it’s recognition of excellent work and nothing more, without any real shot at winning.

To me, Tramell Tillman is the only one of the trio who could break through. Tillman’s Mr. Milchick is devious and determined, a walking enigma, and Tillman brings an enormous amount of both menace and charm to the man. We’re never really sure what we’re seeing with him, and that’s an impressive thing to be able to pull off.

I think there is a future in which Tillman wins this award, but I don’t think it will be this year.

James Marsden, the Outlier

Now for James Marsden, who is a bit of an outlier here. Marsden’s President Cal Bradford is something of an empty suit for a good part of the first season of Paradise, but that all changes in the seventh episode, in which we finally learn how the world ended.

The show itself is… fine. Not great, not bad, just generally fine. However, that seventh episode is as good an hour of television as anything that has appeared anywhere in recent memory. It is a white-knuckle horror show thrill ride for a full hour, and in it, Marsden demonstrates why he is so well respected and one of the brightest stars on television.

Coming just a year after his comedic star turn in Jury Duty, it really shows his acting chops. If not for the work of one other actor, he would be my choice for this award.

That said, if anyone’s going to pull an upset, it’s him, especially if all The White Lotus and Severance guys split their own vote. Which brings us to the trio from The White Lotus, a show I commented on in the Supporting Actress essay.

The White Lotus Contenders

Sam Rockwell is nominated for the insane monologue he gives in the one episode in which he appears — it’s odd to me that he wasn’t nominated in the Guest Actor category, but that’s not for me to discuss here — and as spectacular an acting moment as it is, it doesn’t surpass the season-long arcs demonstrated by his costars, Jason Isaacs and Walton Goggins.

Isaacs’s turn as a crooked North Carolina businessman who discovers at the start of his vacation that he’s probably going to jail and then steals his wife’s pharmaceuticals to get himself through the week is both hilarious and monstrous, which is hard enough to play with consistency. Isaacs makes it look easy, though, which is a testament to his considerable skills.

To me, this award is Walton Goggins’ to lose. The constant sense of dread he puts forth, the feeling that the walls are always closing in on him even as he plots something devious and potentially awful on his own, makes for something close to a claustrophobic viewing experience, if that makes any sense. Every time he appears on screen, the viewer gets the sense that something bad is about to happen, which both makes your skin crawl and gives you the urge to stand up and cheer.

The Verdict

Marsden could pull an upset, as I said, but I think that this performance, and the wide respect that Goggins has in the industry, will put him over the top.

Who Should Win: Walton Goggins

Who Will Win: Walton Goggins

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: The Nominees

It didn’t occur to me how easy the Limited or Anthology Series or Movie division was to write about. Not until I started on the Drama division and looked at the nominees did I realize this was going to be a much tougher analysis and set of predictions. Let’s get our hands dirty and get into the good stuff.

The nominees are:

Patricia Arquette for Severance

Katherine LaNasa for The Pitt

Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, Natasha Rothwell and Aimee Lou Wood for The White Lotus

Julianne Nicholson for Paradise

The Competition

Julianne Nicholson won an Emmy four years ago and is nominated twice this year — here, and for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series for her genius work in Hacks.

I think if she’s going to win another award this year, it’s going to be for that other performance. It’s kind of stunning that these are only the second and third nominations of Nicholson’s career, because it feels like she’s been turning in award-worthy work for a long time now. Her role as the primary villain in Paradise sneaks up on you, and she certainly deserves to be here, but I don’t believe she’s going to win this award.

Patricia Arquette was nominated for her work on Severance three years ago, the last time she was eligible, and lost to Julia Garner of Ozark, one of Garner’s three wins in the category. Arquette is always good, and the way the show has allowed her character to show more of herself, including the fact that perhaps she’s not the villain we might have thought she was, bolsters her case here.

The issue is that if Severance is going to win any awards this year — and I’m not convinced that it is — I don’t believe it will be in this category.

The White Lotus Factor

That brings me to the crux of this particular category, and to a lesser extent, the next one, Supporting Actor.

The thing is, while my wife and I watch and generally enjoy The White Lotus, I don’t tend to understand the overwhelming love the show gets. Each of the last two years, the show has been eligible for the Emmys (Jennifer Coolidge won this award, but she’s not up for it this year).

There are, however, four White Lotus actresses who are, just as there were five of them up for it two years ago, for season 2. I personally believe that Katherine LaNasa’s work in The Pitt is the best thing she’s done in a long career and that she is far and away the most deserving nominee in this category, I believe that one of the four White Lotus actresses is going to take this. Let’s figure out which one.

The Verdict

First and foremost, while I love Parker Posey and have for many years, and as entertaining as she is as an overbearing and overly privileged mother, I don’t think she wins this. Nor do I think Natasha Rothwell will. This feels like a “nomination is her win” type of deal for someone who was terrific in season 1 and just as good in her season 3 return, but it doesn’t feel like the kind of thing that wins trophies.

That leaves us with Carrie Coon and Aimee Lou Wood. Personally, I would have given Coon’s nomination to costar Leslie Bibb, but that doesn’t mean she’s not going to win.

On the contrary, Coon is now one of the most beloved and honored actresses working today, deservedly so, and I tend to think that, after having been nominated twice before this, it’s going to be her turn to climb the stage and accept a trophy.

Even though I believe Aimee Lou Wood gave the most nuanced and powerful performance of the bunch, the devotion her Chelsea shows to her clearly doomed lover, Rick, is the kind of thing you can feel through the TV screen.

If it were just a matter of which White Lotus actress most deserved this award, it would be her. That’s where Katherine LaNasa comes in to spoil things. Ultimately, as much as I’m rooting for her and, to a lesser extent, Wood, I think Coon is going to be the voters’ choice.

Who Should Win: Katherine LaNasa

Who Will Win: Carrie Coon

Final Takeaways

Navigating Emmy-worthy performances can be daunting, especially with so much talent vying for recognition in the drama categories. For actors looking to make their mark, understanding what sets nominees apart is key. Here are some practical takeaways to help you stand out and build a career that catches attention.

Embrace complexity in your roles. Layered, unpredictable performances resonate deeply with audiences and critics alike.

Deliver memorable moments. One powerful, well-executed scene can elevate your entire career trajectory.

Consistency matters. Understand the importance of maintaining nuance over time.

Build a versatile portfolio. Range and persistence pay off in the long run.

Being well-regarded by peers and industry professionals can give your career a crucial edge during awards season and beyond.

In short, actors should focus on choosing challenging roles, delivering standout moments, and cultivating a reputation for reliability and depth. These strategies not only enhance your craft but also increase your chances of recognition in a competitive landscape.