2025 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress and Actor in a Comedy Series

We’re in the home stretch now, people. Just two categories left. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series and Lead Actor. Let’s do the Actress category first.

What You’ll Find in This Article

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: The Nominees

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: The Nominees

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: The Nominees

The nominees are:

Uzo Aduba for The Residence

Kristen Bell for Nobody Wants This

Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary

Ayo Edebiri for The Bear

Jean Smart for Hacks

Uzo Aduba and Kristen Bell’s Chances for the Emmy

My wife and I really enjoyed The Residence, and were surprised that Netflix canceled it so quickly. Uzo Aduba has won three Emmys before — two for playing “Crazy Eyes” on Orange Is the New Black and one for playing Shirley Chisholm in Mrs. America — and her ability to so deftly move to comedy in a role like Cordelia Cupp, the world’s greatest detective, is a testament to her incredible skill as an actor. That said, there is no chance she’s going to win this award.

Nor, for that matter, will Kristen Bell, another deft comedic actor who has had my deep affection since she first broke through in Veronica Mars more than two decades ago. Bell and Adam Brody (more about him in Best Actor) show how powerful great chemistry can be in Nobody Wants This, a terrific show that we also enjoyed (until the final three minutes of the first season finale, that is), and Bell is excellent in it. But, again, there’s no shot.

Ayo Edebiri, Quinta Brunson and Jean Smart

I like Ayo Edebiri a lot on The Bear, and she has won an Emmy before for her work on the show, but it was the show’s first season, and it was in the Supporting Actress category. She moved to Lead Actress for season 2, and if she’d stayed in Supporting, I think she might be looking at her third straight win.

I think it’s probably fair to call her the lead actress on the show, given how her screen time has increased. However, it’s interesting to me that the transition from a supporting player to a lead role can cost a performer awards. As much as I like her, and as good as she is, it’s tough to win when there are two more seasoned and recognized comedic performers in line ahead of you.

One of those is Quinta Brunson, who has been nominated for her work on Abbott Elementary in each of the show’s four seasons and won for season 2. While she deserved to win that award, I think it’s important to point out that it’s the one time in her four nominations that Jean Smart was not nominated, as the third season of Hacks was delayed and she was not eligible. Taking nothing away from Brunson, who is always great, that’s an important distinction.

Jean Smart is an unbeatable dynamo here. She has been brilliant in each of the show’s first three seasons, for which she has won this award, and she was somehow even better than that in season 4, which actually fits because it was Hannah Einbinder’s best season, too. The two of them play off each other so well and bring out so much greatness in each other.

Still, Smart is the driving force here, and her unparalleled genius at bringing Deborah Vance to life will once again deservedly be rewarded with the highest honor the Television Academy has to offer.

Who Should Win: Jean Smart

Who Will Win: Jean Smart

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: The Nominees

And then we came to the end. This has been fun, as it is every year, but alas, there are only so many categories to cover, and this is the last one.

We finish with the nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:

Adam Brody for Nobody Wants This

Seth Rogen for The Studio

Jason Segel for Shrinking

Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White for The Bear

Jason Segel vs. Adam Brody

Let’s start easy. Jason Segel has now been nominated for both seasons of Shrinking — though not two years in a row, as the second season took an extra year to produce and so he wasn’t eligible in 2024 — and I sort of understand it, and I sort of don’t. The show is entertaining, but there’s something about Segel as the show’s center that doesn’t quite hold for me.

It’s not that he isn’t a talented actor; he is, it’s just that he strikes me as the least interesting part of an interesting show. I mean, the cast is insane, from fellow nominees Harrison Ford, Michael Urie and Jessica Williams, to Christa Miller, Luke Tennie, Lukita Maxwell, Wendie Malick, Damon Wayans Jr., Brett Goldstein and the legendary Ted McGinley, doing some of the best work of his career. That’s one of the best casts on TV. Full stop.

I understand why Segel gets nominated every year, but it’s not necessarily a performance that I appreciate as much as members of the Academy seem to. Although this hasn’t prevented someone from winning before, I think the competition is too fierce in this case.

Adam Brody, on the other hand, is someone whose work I’ve appreciated since he broke in with The O.C., and what he and Kristen Bell did together on-screen in Nobody Wants This was the kind of TV you really root for. Playing a cool young rabbi who falls in love with a shiksa, Brody brought some serious sex appeal to the clergy.

I think that with another season coming, there’s a future in which he could actually win this trophy one year; I just don’t think it’s this one.

Which brings us to the final three, where it gets a bit tricky, yet remains reasonably straightforward. Allow me to explain.

The Final Three Contenders: Martin Short, Jeremy Allen White, Seth Rogen

Martin Short has somehow never won a major acting award in his career, and I do not for the life of me understand how that is. He is, in the words of co-star and best friend Steve Martin, “a perfect human being” (I personally would have given him Segel’s nomination in this category).

He is funny, and he can play drama without cornying it up. He can sing, dance and do it all. When he’s gone, we will wonder how we didn’t appreciate him properly. The work he does year in and year out on Only Murders in the Building is worthy of multiple trophies, and I hope that one of these years, he will actually win one. He deserves it this year for season 4 of the show, but I think it’s fairly certain that he won’t win it.

Jeremy Allen has won this award two years in a row, and in normal years, he’d probably be the odds-on favorite to three-peat, but not this year, because this is the year Seth Rogen wins his first major acting award.

I will be honest in that I have never really been a fan of Rogen’s, as I believe he tends to be a one-trick pony. He does that one thing — the funny, angsty, slightly hapless Jewish teddy bear — reasonably well, don’t get me wrong, but there rarely feels more to him than that.

Now, I don’t necessarily believe that his work as Matt Remick is outside of that scope, but it’s the particular type of funny, angsty, slightly hapless Jewish teddy bear he plays that happened to work so well this year. As the co-creator, creative vision and center of the best Hollywood satire in recent memory, Rogen impressed me this year more than I think he ever has.

The desperate-to-succeed young studio head he plays is the effective center of a series in a way that Segel’s Jimmy isn’t (to me, at least, whatever that’s worth), and the things about him that always annoyed me actually worked in his favor on this show.

It’s the best Hollywood satire in years, and it totally nails the work of hack studio executives, and he’s going to be rewarded for that by an industry that both loves and hates being skewered. Sometimes, it’s that easy.

Who Should Win: Martin Short

Who Will Win: Seth Rogen

Thanks, as always, for reading! Enjoy the Emmys, and Hooray for Hollywood!

Final Takeaways

As the Emmy race tightens, new actors can learn a lot from the veterans and frontrunners shaping the field. Success isn’t just about raw talent; it’s about knowing your role, building chemistry and finding the right project to showcase your strengths. Here are some practical takeaways to help emerging performers navigate their own paths to recognition.

Choose roles that spotlight your unique abilities, but be mindful of category placement; moving from supporting to lead can reset expectations and competition.

Build strong on-screen chemistry with co-stars because it can elevate your performance and create buzz around your show.

Be patient and persistent as many celebrated actors win after multiple nominations and consistent quality work.

Seek projects that resonate with current industry trends or cultural moments, like sharp satire or fresh perspectives, to increase your visibility.

Balance comedic timing with depth, show versatility to avoid being typecast or seen as a “one-trick” performer.

By focusing on these strategies, actors can better position themselves for both critical acclaim and lasting career momentum. The Emmys reward not just talent, but thoughtful choices and growth over time. Keep honing your craft and picking roles that let you shine.