Inside the Best Actor Oscar Race: Michael B. Jordan Surges Ahead

And now, finally, the Best Actor race. People spent a lot of time talking about how it’s a race between two actors, but that was a while back, and things have changed markedly.

The nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role are Michael B. Jordan, Sinners, Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon and Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.

Key Insights

Awards momentum can change quickly, and the Best Actor race proves how industry buzz and late viewings can reshape predictions.

Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance in Sinners may give him the kind of technical showcase voters often reward.

Subtle performances like Wagner Moura’s can earn critical admiration even when flashier roles dominate awards voting.

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I wrote another version of this essay a couple of weeks ago, but came back and changed it entirely at the last minute, because so much has changed since I first did it. Originally, I basically dismissed Ethan Hawke and Michael B. Jordan’s chances at this award, briefly mentioned Leo’s job in One Battle After Another, and then focused most of the rest of it on Chalamet and Moura.

But so much is different that I asked my editor if I could sub this in at the last minute, because everything has been turned upside down, and I knew I had to reexamine it all.

Not long ago, Leo was considered a frontrunner for this, and it was likely to come down to him and Timothée. Now, I would put Leo’s chances at zero and believe he will get the fewest votes of any of these guys.

Amazing, how fortunes can change. While Jessie Buckley is a mortal lock to win the Best Actress race as discussed yesterday, Leo has done nothing wrong, and yet has seen his chances vanish over the course of a month.

That’s because everyone else is catching up to the work the other four have done. Ethan Hawke is someone I thought had no chance at all, but the truth is, if people actually watch Blue Moon, they will be forced to reckon with perhaps the finest actor of his generation turning in some of his strongest work. He is simply remarkable playing Lorenz Hart in longtime collaborator Richard Linklater’s best movie in a while. Yesterday, I said that Renate Reinsve was the third of three truly great performances I saw this year, but I realized after the fact that I left out a fourth and a fifth. Hawke’s is the fourth. The fifth I will get to in a few paragraphs.

First, I need to talk about Chalamet, whom I was convinced was going to win this award. You want to talk about an electric current through a film, that’s Chalamet, who is big and brassy and also subtle and quiet, depending on the moment. He plays a stupendously unlikable character who, through Chalamet’s charisma, you can’t help but root for. I have talked to a lot of people who did not like Marty Supreme, and I get it. I personally loved it, but it’s one of those movies where I can understand how someone might not.

Chalamet’s talent is really incredible. He’s building a remarkable resume, and even though he’s only 30 years old, he’s already been nominated for four Oscars, three of them for acting (he’s also a producer on Best Picture nominee Marty Supreme). There are only so many times one can say about an actor, “It’s not his time yet,” before it becomes his time. It happened with Leo, and until a few days ago, I thought it would happen with Timothée.

But that rare thing happened, which is that Michael B. Jordan has come from nowhere to become the frontrunner. Any time an actor convincingly plays twins — see Nicolas Cage in Adaptation, for one example — there’s an added degree of difficulty, as well as extra honors in store. This is not different, and the thing is, as more and more people seem to be convinced that One Battle After Another is going to sweep Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, and Sinners director Ryan Coogler seems a given for Best Original Screenplay, I suspect more people are going to throw votes toward Jordan to recognize their love of Sinners. So now, I’m doing the rare thing and changing my mind at the last possible minute. I don’t tend to second-guess myself, but I’m not so stubborn as to be unwilling to change my mind when presented with more information.

Which is that Michael B. Jordan seems to now be the odds-on favorite, and I can’t argue with that and won’t pick against it.

Now, having said all that, there’s still the matter of the fifth truly great performance I saw this year, and that’s Wagner Moura. If you’ve been paying attention to the essays I’ve written for this site over the last few years, you know I’m a big fan of work that’s more subtle, that you have to really pay attention to so as to properly appreciate it. Moura does that in The Secret Agent, keeping things a mystery and only revealing small details until he needs to show more. Even then, you’re never really certain what he’s doing or why, all while you can see the tension coiled beneath his eyes. He knows he’s in constant danger, and we know that part of him is certain he’s not going to survive. And yet, there’s no panic, no release, just a steady hum of tension that is as electrifying as the flashier work Chalamet turns in. I couldn’t take my eyes off Moura in the film, and even wrote about it at the beginning of the year.

I want Moura to win. I think Chalamet still has an outside shot, and it’s entirely possible that Hawke pulls a huge upset — again, it really depends on if people actually see that movie — but if we’re talking about odds, and who has the best of them, my new pick is Jordan, and honestly, I won’t be upset to be right. Really, I won’t be upset to be wrong, either. It’s still wide open.

For everyone but Leo, of course.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Wagner Moura

WHO WILL WIN: Michael B. Jordan

Key Takeaways

The Best Actor race has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, with Michael B. Jordan emerging as the new frontrunner after once trailing Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio.

While Jordan appears to have momentum, strong performances from Ethan Hawke, Timothée Chalamet, and Wagner Moura keep the category competitive.

Though Jordan is now the predicted winner, Wagner Moura’s subtle performance remains the critic’s personal pick.