2025 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series

For those of us who spend a good amount of time writing about television, there is no more interesting event than the Emmys. We spend countless hours trying to determine which performers and shows are worthy of the golden statue, and, if we are smart, even more time trying to figure out which ones will actually win.

This year’s races for Outstanding Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series have been especially compelling, with a number of fresh faces and returning favorites vying for the top honors. There are few things as fun as a good, well-reasoned prediction that comes true. Let’s get into it.

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: The Nominees

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: The Nominees

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: The Nominees

And now, what I think is the most interesting of the four categories in the Drama division — Outstanding Lead Actor. Gary Oldman is the only returning nominee, but I’m not ready to talk about him yet, so we’ll circle back.

The nominees are:

Sterling K. Brown for Paradise

Gary Oldman for Slow Horses

Pedro Pascal for The Last of Us

Adam Scott for Severance

Noah Wyle for The Pitt

The Case for Sterling K. Brown and Pedro Pascal

Sterling K. Brown has already been nominated for several awards and has won twice. I don’t think that’s the reason why he’s not going to win this time, but it is worth mentioning. People have been known to win a lot of these suckers, so it’s not like people are sick of him.

I’ve already discussed Paradise, and while it’s a perfectly fine show, I think other, better shows will likely prompt voters to lower their ratings on the ballot. This year especially, Brown is just in a brutally stacked category, with three other guys who could win, and a movie star who won’t, but who still sucks up a lot of oxygen.

That would be Pedro Pascal, who deserves the recognition he gets for playing Joel in The Last of Us, even though he only appeared in three of the season’s seven episodes. His work in this show has been fabulous, and, sadly, he won’t be on it anymore, but it’s not like we won’t have plenty of him on movie screens going forward.

Pascal is hugely talented, and in other years, he might get a send-off with a trophy. Again, though, this year this category is stacked, and one of the three men I am about to discuss will surely win.

Adam Scott: The Dark Horse

Let’s start with Adam Scott, who is unquestionably terrific in Severance, and whose work in the second season finale, in which his two severed sides finally have a conversation the show had been building toward since the beginning, was a singular acting moment and the shining example of what a talent Scott is. I think, unlike his costars, he could win this.

I don’t ultimately think he will, because of the other two men I’m about to discuss, but it’s possible.

Gary Oldman, Noah Wyle and The Verdict

One of those two men is Oldman, who plays Jackson Lamb on Slow Horses, who happens to be, in my opinion, the best character currently on television, and one of the top 10 or 12 in the history of the medium.

Yes, really. I could write a whole other essay purely about Jackson Lamb and the way Oldman plays him, but we don’t have the time or space to do so today (maybe if my editor lets me run with it next month, when the show returns to Apple TV+ with season 5).

Anyway, Oldman deserves this award every year he plays the role, and there’s nothing anyone can say or do, no other performance anyone could give, that would change my opinion.

This brings us to Noah Wyle, the other man here, who has spent his entire career on television, earning several nominations for his work on another hospital show, ER, which also made him famous. Now, he’s on The Pitt, giving the performance of his career in work that knocked my socks off.

The show takes place in real time, and over the course of 15 hours in a Pittsburgh emergency room, Wyle’s Dr. Robby slowly comes unglued. It’s a tour de force, and if it weren’t for my utter love and devotion to Gary Oldman, I would say that Wyle is clearly the most deserving nominee.

That said, I think the voters will disagree with me and feel that Wyle deserves it more than Oldman does, which is why I believe Noah is going to win. And y’know what? He’ll deserve it, too.

Who Should Win: Gary Oldman

Who Will Win: Noah Wyle

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: The Nominees

It’s always an interesting thing when the Emmys have that rare year in which exactly zero people repeat as nominees, so that it’s a fresh five people, and no chance of someone climbing the stage two years running. Such is the situation in this year’s race for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series.

The nominees, (none of whom were so honored last year) are:

Kathy Bates for Matlock

Sharon Horgan for Bad Sisters

Britt Lower for Severance

Bella Ramsey for The Last of Us

Keri Russell for The Diplomat

Sharon Horgan, Bella Ramsey and Keri Russell

Now, to be totally up front and fair here, it’s worth noting that Horgan, Ramsey and Russell have all been nominated in this category before, in the roles for which they have been recognized this year. It was two years ago, in 2023, but since none of those shows had an Emmy-eligible season last year, of course, none were eligible to be nominated again.

Still, it makes you wonder why none of them won two years ago. That was because Sarah Snook won for the juggernaut that was Succession, which makes sense. Since that show is also no longer on the air, the question becomes, are any of these three actresses going to rise above the others to win the trophy?

Maybe, but I don’t think so. Let’s get into why.

First, Sharon Horgan is an enormously talented writer and actress who was behind Catastrophe, which, as previously noted, is one of the century’s great shows. Horgan is also behind Bad Sisters, and she is nominated for writing this season as well, so I think if she does win anything, it would be for that. Ultimately, I think not enough people watch her show to get her to the stage.

Bella Ramsey, however, is not only on one of the biggest and most viewed streaming shows currently on the air, but she also performed for the first time as an adult after having grown up on screen in front of us. And it’s a real adult performance, too.

With the shocking change in status of Pedro Pascal’s Joel (I am seriously wary of spoilers here, even if most people who would care have almost certainly seen the show and know what I’m talking about), it went from a two-hander to Ramsey’s show, and hers alone. She is now the unquestioned star of the series, and she made sure there was no doubt about it, owning every scene she’s in.

Now, do I think she’ll actually win? No. I do not.

I think that Keri Russell’s work in The Diplomat reminded us all why she’s one of the best actresses on television and has been for a very long time. The Diplomat is a fun show. Much more fun than The Last of Us — a show that, while very entertaining, can hardly be referred to as “fun” — and Russell’s title character is the center of that fun. Somehow, she brings gravitas and sincerity to a show that is a wilder, soapier version of The West Wing, and that says a lot.

Britt Lower, Kathy Bates and the Verdict

Then there’s Britt Lower in Severance, the show with the most nominations this year. I think Severance was great in this second season, and all those nominations show just how much the TV Academy respects the show.

However, there’s something about it that makes me doubt any of the performers will actually win any awards this year. I can’t base this on anything more than an educated guess, but as good as Lower was — and she really is excellent this year, playing both sides of her severed personality — I don’t see it. Maybe in season 3, whenever that shows up, but not this year.

Ultimately, I think Kathy Bates wins this. You want to talk about fun — the legendary actress fronted a questionable reboot of a mostly beloved, but somewhat ridiculed, old show and turned it into must-watch TV. The fact that she’s a legend who keeps doing legendary things makes it a fairly easy choice.

Who Should Win: Kathy Bates

Who Will Win: Kathy Bates

Final Takeaways

The Emmys offer a fascinating glimpse into the industry’s current landscape, highlighting both established veterans and rising stars. For actors trying to make their mark, understanding what sets nominees apart can be invaluable. Here are some practical takeaways from this year’s acting races to help you navigate your own path in television.

Choose roles with depth and complexity. Offering rich emotional and psychological layers will help you stand out. Seek projects that challenge you similarly.

Make every scene count. Limited but powerful appearances prove that quality can outweigh quantity; maximize your impact even in smaller roles.

Be patient and persistent. Build your reputation over years; consistent, dedicated work often leads to recognition down the line.

Embrace versatility.

Leverage your unique strengths, bring undeniable charisma, find what makes you stand out and lean into it.

In an industry as competitive as television, these insights underscore that success often comes from a combination of smart role choices, committed performances and steady career growth. Keep honing your craft and choosing projects that let your talent shine.