Golden Globes 2026: Male Actor Predictions

Well, I’m back. There’s a big awards show this weekend, and with that comes some prognostication. The tricky thing is that the awards show in question is the Golden Globes, which is the most ridiculous and unpredictable of the whole bunch, so this whole thing is admittedly more of a crap shoot than normal. I do think they tend to reward celebrity more than other award shows, and they also like to follow trends, as you’ll see in a few of my choices over the next two days.

Having offered those caveats, though, I’m ready, willing and able to give it the old college try, so herein is a quick and nasty look at each of the male acting categories, film and TV, rapid-fire style. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the actresses.

Key Insights

The Globes reward star power and trends more than any other major awards body, creating unpredictable outcomes.

Across film categories, breakout performances and celebrity momentum are driving frontrunners over traditional prestige picks.

TV races reveal a wave of repeat winners and new favorites, cementing momentum heading into Emmys and Oscars.

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BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR: DRAMA

The nominees are Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners, Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein and Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.

Remember over the summer, when people were talking about Johnson winning an Oscar? Well, that talk has long died down, and the only reason he’s here — great as he is in the movie — is because of the two categories. He’s not getting an Oscar nod, neither is White, and probably not Isaac. Two of the best performances I saw all year were Edgerton and Moura, and if I had to choose, I’d go with the latter, though I think Jordan wins for his dual roles in Ryan Coogler’s excellent period vampire thriller.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Wagner Moura

WHO WILL WIN: Michael B. Jordan

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

The nominees are Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon, George Clooney, Jay Kelly, Jesse Plemons, Bugonia, Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice, Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another and Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme.

This one is more complicated than I think it should be. Clooney has an outside shot at an Oscar nod for his solid work playing a movie star, but the movie is a trifle that has no real weight to it. The star power, though, is enough to make me think he has a chance here, because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association knows he’d give a killer acceptance speech. DiCaprio has a similar story, though I think he’s pretty much a shoo-in for a nomination. But to me, this is finally Chalamet’s year. And he’ll deserve it. He’s simply spectacular in Marty Supreme.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Timothée Chalamet

WHO WILL WIN: Timothée Chalamet

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

The nominees are Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly, Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein, Paul Mescal, Hamnet and Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value.

I think the only reason Penn is here is the aforementioned star power, whereas I think the other five nominees are going to be the same ones called when Oscar nods are announced on January 22. Each of the five men here has a good argument.

Elordi or Mescal as newly anointed stars, Sandler for the dramatic turn and the great speech he’ll give, and del Toro for his continued excellence and the extra zing he brings to every role. I’d actually be okay with any of them winning this, and with winning the Oscar, but ultimately, I think this goes to Skarsgård, not just for his stellar career, but because this is the finest work he’s done in that stellar career.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Stellan Skarsgård

WHO WILL WIN: Stellan Skarsgård

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

The nominees are Adam Scott, Severance, Diego Luna, Andor, Gary Oldman, Slow Horses, Mark Ruffalo, Task, Noah Wyle, The Pitt and Sterling Brown, Paradise.

As I noted when I wrote about the Emmys back in the fall, this category will always be easy for me to declare who should win it. Gary Oldman deserves every award that recognizes greatness in televised drama as long as he’s playing Jackson Lamb on Slow Horses. Unfortunately, since I am not yet King of the World and cannot decree such things, let’s just agree that Noah Wyle will continue his run of winning everything for which he’s nominated, and if you’ve seen The Pitt, it’s honestly hard to argue.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman

WHO WILL WIN: Noah Wyle

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

The nominees are Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This, Glen Powell, Chad Powers, Jeremy Allen White, The Bear, Seth Rogen, The Studio, and Martin Short and Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building.

Jeremy Allen White has won this award three years running. That streak ends this year. The dark horse is Glen Powell — again, star power, this time combined with being newly anointed — and so if there’s an upset, I think it’s him, but I don’t think so, because I think that just like Wyle, Seth Rogen continues his winning streak for everything The Studio-related. Also well deserved.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Seth Rogen

WHO WILL WIN: Seth Rogen

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

The nominees are Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story, Jacob Elordi, The Narrow Road to The Deep North, Jude Law, Black Rabbit, Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me, Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror and Stephen Graham, Adolescence.

This one is easy. So is the next one. It’s the year of Adolescence, and there is no way that Stephen Graham isn’t going to win this award. And he should.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Stephen Graham

WHO WILL WIN: Stephen Graham

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ON TELEVISION

The nominees are Ashley Walters and Owen Cooper, Adolescence, Billy Crudup, The Morning Show, Jason Isaacs and Walton Goggins, The White Lotus and Tramell Tillman, Severance.

What I wrote above? Change out Graham’s name for Owen Cooper’s, and it’s the same deal. See you tomorrow for all the actresses.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Owen Cooper

WHO WILL WIN: Owen Cooper

Key Takeaways

Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet are positioned for major Globe wins thanks to star profiles and standout roles.

Supporting categories favor industry veterans like Stellan Skarsgård while spotlighting rising talent such as Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal.

TV dominance shifts to new streaks—Seth Rogen, Noah Wyle, and the cast of Adolescence—with legacy icons like Gary Oldman still delivering award-worthy work.